BAGHDAD — Two bombers detonated suicide vests Friday outside a golden-domed religious shrine in Baghdad and killed at least 71 people, raising the death toll in two days of attacks on Shiite Muslims in Iraq to 159 and reviving fear of a return to sectarian war.
The attacks at the Imam Musa al Kadhim shrine in the northwest of the capital increased concern that the Sunni Arab insurgency is regrouping just as U.S. forces are preparing to withdraw from Iraq's cities and President Obama seeks to shift resources away from Iraq toward Afghanistan.
The violence was reminiscent of the sustained campaign of bombings against Shiite targets, particularly mosques and markets, that escalated throughout 2005 and eventually provoked a fierce backlash from Shiite militias. It was the bombing in February 2006 of another Shiite shrine, in Samarra, 60 miles north of the capital, that escalated the conflict into civil war.
It is too early to say whether the recent increase in violence marks the beginning of a new trend, or just another of the many bloody blips likely to characterize Iraq as U.S. forces withdraw, said Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group. Either way, he said, it is unlikely that the violence will interfere with Obama's plan to pull out from the cities by the end of June, to withdraw U.S. combat forces by the end of August 2010 and all U.S. troops by the end of 2011.
"I don't think the U.S. has any appetite to stay, whether the violence is up or down, and I'm not sure President Obama is going to change his mind," Hiltermann said.
At the same time, the violence could undermine Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's image as a tough leader as the country prepares for national elections late in the year.
Maliki ordered the detention of the police commander in charge of the area at the time, and the suspension of all other officers on duty. He also appointed a commission to look into what appears to be a coordinated escalation of violence.
The U.S. military commander in the region, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, said in testimony before Congress on Friday that the bombings show the situation in Iraq is still "fragile and reversible." He said that more such attacks are likely.
The U.S. military has evidence that four other recent suicide bombers were Tunisian nationals, Petraeus said, suggesting a return to Iraq by the foreign Islamist fighters held to be responsible for most suicide attacks early in the insurgency. Another person who facilitated the actions of the four has been captured, he said.
