MOSCOW — Last August, fresh off a swift, decisive military victory over U.S.-backed Georgia, the Kremlin basked in newfound international power and domestic prestige: Oil was booming. Anti-Western taunts and propaganda crammed state media. A dramatic message about resurgent Russian strength had been unequivocally delivered.
One year later, the euphoria has evaporated. The war is still discussed in tones of righteousness, but the military victory left Russia isolated, made formerly compliant neighbors reluctant to do Moscow's bidding, and sparked a foreign capital flight that dovetailed with the global financial crisis.
Most crushing, the war has done serious damage to what is plainly Russia's top foreign policy priority: the reestablishment of what the president has called a "privileged" sphere of influence in former Soviet states.
Today is the first anniversary of the war's outbreak, when an overwhelming wave of Russian tanks and warplanes crossed the border and roared to within 30 miles of the Georgian capital, Tbilisi. The exact circumstances of the war's onset remain in dispute, but the most commonly held version of events is that Georgia launched a military operation to reassert control over the rebel province of South Ossetia, and Russia invaded, fighting on the side of the separatists.
Threats and accusations of renewed fighting are flying thick and ominously this week, and there is concern that new battles could erupt.
Some analysts say Russia's postwar isolation is fueling instability. In Moscow, they say, there is a lingering discomfort over the war's failure to unseat Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who is openly loathed by Russian leaders.
"Many in Moscow believe this is the result of indecisiveness, that we should have marched all the way to Tbilisi and finished the job," said Pavel Felgengauer, a Moscow-based military analyst with the Jamestown Foundation. "There's a strong opinion here that a serious mistake was made and that the answer is regime change. The situation is very dangerous."
In Georgia, the U.S.-backed leadership has been left to grapple with the painful reality of lost lands and shattered military infrastructure. Political instability intensified this year as massive demonstrations demanded Saakashvili's resignation, pointing to the war as evidence of his insufficiency.
