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Pakistan Taliban leader's purported death opens window of opportunity

Baitullah Mahsud's absence leaves the group, which provides Al Qaeda sanctuary, in turmoil. Analysts say Pakistan and the U.S. need to act during this vulnerable time.

August 17, 2009|Alex Rodriguez

ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN — For years, Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban have nurtured a symbiotic relationship that has paid off for both militant groups. The Taliban provided Al Qaeda and its leaders sanctuary within the rugged wasteland of Pakistan's tribal areas along the Afghan border. In turn, Al Qaeda trained and helped finance its host.

Now, with the purported death of Taliban leader Baitullah Mahsud and his organization temporarily rudderless, Al Qaeda finds itself made vulnerable by the disarray plaguing its patron, experts and Pakistani intelligence sources say. It's a window of opportunity that neither Pakistan nor the United States can afford to neglect.


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"It's a bad patch for Al Qaeda, because of the infighting and the fight for top leadership going on right now within the Taliban," said a Pakistani intelligence source who spoke on condition of anonymity. "So, for the time being, Al Qaeda will be disturbed. But I stress, for the time being."

Mahsud's death has yet to be verified, but both Pakistani and U.S. officials are confident that an American drone strike Aug. 5 did kill the Taliban leader, long regarded by Pakistanis as their most-wanted militant. Since his death, Taliban commanders have been feuding over the right to succeed him, and rifts within the ranks have threatened to undo the unity Mahsud had carefully forged.

With the Taliban mired in disarray, experts say Pakistan and the U.S. need to ratchet up their bid to track down and eliminate other top Taliban commanders. The aim, they say, is not just to dismantle the Taliban, but to cut off Al Qaeda from the entity that keeps it insulated and secure deep within the badlands of Waziristan.

Officials in Washington have repeatedly pushed Islamabad to aggressively pursue militants throughout northwestern Pakistan. However, the Obama administration has taken care to not be perceived as dictating Pakistan's military strategizing.

At a joint news conference with Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi on Sunday, Obama's special envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, Richard C. Holbrooke, said the U.S. would not intervene in Pakistan's handling of the effort to root out militants from South Waziristan.

"It's a decision for the Pakistan government to make, and to make alone," said Holbrooke, who was on the second day of a 12-day regional tour.

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