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Yemen teeters on brink of failure

The nation is grappling with poverty, a stubborn insurgency and Al Qaeda presence. Some say its strategic location near Saudi Arabia and the Horn of Africa mean it cannot be allowed to fail.

December 06, 2009|By Jeffrey Fleishman
  • Stalls in Sana's Old City sell traditional daggers, or jambiyas. Some analysts fear that authoritarian rule and harsh economic conditions have made the country ripe for Al Qaeda to grow and recruit. Others wonder whether the threat is exaggerated by a government that needs U.S. attention and billions of dollars in aid from Persian Gulf nations.
Stalls in Sana's Old City sell traditional daggers, or jambiyas.… (Paul Stephens / For The Times )

Reporting from Sana, Yemen — The president's new mosque shimmers over this ancient city like an illusion of stability against images of MIG fighter jets screeching overhead toward rebellion in the north or the latest news of pirates seizing ships in the treacherous Gulf of Aden.

In Sana's snug alleys, men speak of war, secession and Al Qaeda, which is busy scouring schoolyards and mosques for new recruits while much of the population spends hours each day getting a mellow buzz from chewing khat leaves.

If Yemen were a theater, which sometimes it appears to be, it would be an unnerving place of trapdoors and shifting facades. This is the poorest nation in the Arab world and one of the most strategically located, with 3 million barrels of oil sailing daily past its shores, tucked between Saudi Arabia and Somalia.

And it is a teetering mess that some in Washington fear could draw the U.S. into a conflict with extremists at the intersection of the Middle East and the lawless Horn of Africa.

"We are a failed state," said Abubakr A. Badeeb, a leading member of the opposition Socialist Party. "Yemen can no longer protect the rights of its citizens."

Others regard the country as a "failing" state, and the tricky thing about Yemen is parsing fact from fiction. Every scenario has a counter-narrative; every surface pulses with a beguiling underside. Is Al Qaeda a grave threat, or is its strength exaggerated by a government that needs U.S. attention and billions of dollars in aid from Persian Gulf nations? Is the war in the north a rebellion by a disaffected sect, or is it turning into a perilous proxy battle between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with the Saudis already launching military strikes across the border?

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh for almost 20 years has balanced conflicting tribal and sectarian voices, but his government's grip is slipping.

FOR THE RECORD: An earlier version of the online headline for this article referred to Yemen as "tiny," which is an incorrect characterization of the nation.

Al Qaeda's aim is to exploit the economic crisis and domestic turmoil, overthrow the government and build a base for attacks across the region, Western and Yemeni intelligence officials say. Worried about terrorism and protecting oil supplies, the U.S. is working on a military cooperation pact with Yemen that includes training Yemeni special forces.

"Al Qaeda in the past focused on bombings and suicide attacks, but now it is also able to target security forces," said Saeed Ali O. Jemhi, an expert on terrorist groups in Yemen. "They have sympathizers and agents within the Yemeni security and intelligence forces. Al Qaeda is in a renewing stage, and its aim is to spread an Islamic caliphate across the Arabian Peninsula."

Washington's concern about Yemen has intensified since 2000, when militants slammed a motorboat packed with explosives into the U.S. destroyer Cole in the port of Aden, killing 17 sailors. The U.S. Embassy here in Sana, the capital, was attacked in 2008, leaving 19 dead, including a U.S. citizen.

But non-military U.S. aid to Yemen has remained modest; this year totaling $24 million, up from $9.3 million the previous year. The Obama administration has requested about $65 million in counter-terrorism and military assistance.

It's a discomfiting task to choose Yemen's most pressing problem. Corruption is rampant, unemployment is 35%, child malnutrition is rising, water shortages are severe and oil reserves are shrinking.

It says something about a country's priorities that most of its dwindling water supply goes to irrigating khat, whose bitter-tasting leaves have for generations kept Yemenis in a sedated haze.

"Owing to the central government's historically weak control, the country has often been on the brink of chaos," said Christopher Boucek, an analyst with the Carnegie Center for International Peace. "Yemen has survived individual challenges in the past, but what differentiates the situation today is that multiple interconnected challenges are poised to converge at the same time."

The secessionist movement in the south threatens to split the country, but bombs and a surge of more than 175,000 people fleeing the war in the northwest is the consuming topic these days. There, Houthi rebels, Shiites of the Zaidi sect that had ruled for centuries, are battling Yemeni and Saudi forces along a border that stretches to the shipping lanes of the Red Sea.

The fighting, which began in August when the government launched Operation Scorched Earth, is the latest in a sporadic five-year insurgency. The Houthis say they are persecuted and marginalized, and they condemn Saleh, who is also a Zaidi, for being influenced by Sunni Wahhabi ideology from Saudi Arabia. The conflict, however, is rooted less in religion than in government failures and historical animosities in a mountainous region controlled by clans and tribes.

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