Reporting from Islamabad, Pakistan —
Just 15 months into his term, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari is withering under pressure from the country's military, opposition parties and vocal media critics.
Pakistani leader Zardari is on shaky ground
Asif Ali Zardari has been a key partner for the U.S. in its Afghan war effort. But the deeply unpopular president has had to cede key powers as he faces a possible revival of corruption charges.
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari's tacit approval of U.S. airstrikes… (Farooq Naeem / AFP/Getty…)
Zardari has proved a reliable U.S. partner, even on actions that are unpopular with the Pakistani public, such as the CIA's campaign of airstrikes targeting Al Qaeda leaders and the Taliban in the tribal areas along the border with Afghanistan.
Analysts say that if Zardari loses a measure of control over foreign and defense issues, the winner is likely to be the Pakistani military, which has a long history of tense relations with Washington.
The 54-year-old president already has ceded several of his most important powers, including the chairmanship of the agency that oversees Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, to Prime Minister Yusaf Raza Gillani. He plans this month to give up authority to dissolve parliament, dismiss the prime minister and appoint military chiefs, leaving him little more than a figurehead.
Even that may not be enough for some of his critics, who want him tried on corruption charges from the late 1980s, when he served in the Cabinet of Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, his wife, who was slain two years ago. Though never convicted, he was imprisoned from 1990 to '93 and 1997 to 2004 in cases that he has contended were politically motivated.
As president, Zardari is shielded by immunity from prosecution. However, in a review that began Monday, the country's Supreme Court could decide that he was ineligible for election as president and therefore can be tried. One of the charges against him alleges that he misappropriated $1.5 billion.
The timing of Zardari's political woes could prove troublesome for Obama.
The U.S. leader's decision to set a deadline of July 2011 to start withdrawing troops from Afghanistan has many Pakistanis worried that the United States will leave its war-racked western neighbor before ensuring its security -- the same step the U.S. was accused of taking after the Soviet Union pulled out of Afghanistan 20 years ago.
Pakistanis also fear that the deployment of 30,000 more U.S. troops in Afghanistan will force Taliban fighters to flee over the border into Pakistan, where troops are already locked in battle with insurgents in tribal areas.
The U.S. cannot send troops to Pakistan because of strong opposition there. But Obama has increased the number of CIA drone strikes in Pakistan's tribal areas, with tacit approval of Zardari's administration.
Zardari also supported language in a five-year, $7.5-billion U.S. aid package to Pakistan that called for civilian oversight of the Pakistani military, despite a torrent of criticism from military commanders, Pakistani news media and the opposition.
The Obama administration would prefer to work with a civilian government that oversees the military, rather than one run by military men, such as Zardari's predecessor, former Gen. Pervez Musharraf.
But as a result of Zardari's political troubles, the military establishment could end up wielding far more control over the country's affairs, particularly foreign policy. Gillani, who is assuming the executive powers Zardari is relinquishing, is regarded as being closer to the military than Zardari is, analysts say. Some of the powers traditionally had been the prime minister's but were assumed by Musharraf when he came to power in a military coup.
Gillani has not shied away from criticizing the United States. The day before Obama announced his new Afghan plan last week, Gillani spoke out against the decision to send more troops to Afghanistan. He said it would send Afghan Taliban fighters across the border and complicate the Pakistani military's fight with them.
"Gillani is seen as being more respectful of the viewpoint of the military establishment and of Pakistan's own security needs," said Rasul Bakhsh Rais, a Lahore-based political analyst.
The Pakistani military has always been wary of Zardari's close relationship with Washington. The Americans think they have found another ally in Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, the army chief who launched major operations against Islamic militants this year in the Swat Valley and the volatile South Waziristan region along the border with Afghanistan.
But the United States remains troubled by the Pakistani military's fixation on neighbor India as its primary enemy, even as the Taliban and its allies unleash nearly daily attacks across the country. Much of the billions of dollars in U.S. aid have been spent on conventional weapons meant for a possible conflict with India, rather than gearing up for a counter-insurgency campaign against the Taliban.
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