Despite all the tourists scared away by the bloody struggle between Tijuana police and Mexican drug lords, Tijuana continues to lead the world in arrests of Americans abroad.
In fact, arrests there increased in the last year, while figures were falling in the rest of Mexico and the world. The contrast perplexes even some experts.
"It's a statistician's nightmare," said David A. Shirk, professor of political science and director of the Trans-Border Institute at the University of San Diego.
In the year ended Sept. 30, 687 Americans were arrested in Tijuana, according to U.S. State Department statistics requested by the Los Angeles Times.
That figure far exceeds numbers for runners-up: London (274 arrests), Mexico City (142) and Hong Kong (107).
Worldwide, the State Department's embassies and consulates reported a decrease in American arrests: from 4,456 in 2006 to 3,125 from October 2007 through September 2008.
Mexico has six of the world's top 13 cities for American arrests. But the State Department tally shows arrests in Guadalajara fell from 416 in 2006 to 50 in the latest period. In Nuevo Laredo, they fell from 359 to 69; in Mexico City, from 208 to 142; in Nogales, from 96 to 76. In Ciudad Juarez, where the number was fewer than 90 in 2006, the most recent count was 58.
The newest Tijuana numbers, on the other hand, represent an increase of nearly a third from 2006, when a world-leading 520 Americans were reported arrested in or near the city.
"It's an interesting puzzlement," said Wayne Cornelius, director of the Center for Comparative Immigration Studies at UC San Diego. "The first thing I, as a social scientist, would say is, 'Have they changed the method of data collection?' If you can rule that out, you'd have to look at changes in tactics by anybody who does law enforcement."
U.S. officials said they were unaware of any changes in Mexican arrest-reporting procedures.
"That blip might just reflect more policing," said Michael Dear, a geo- graphy professor at USC who has been studying the U.S.-Mexican border for the last 10 years. He noted that Tijuana is "a city that's now significantly more policed than it's ever been."
State Department officials declined to speculate on what might be behind the numbers. They also offered no specifics on which crimes were connected with the Mexican arrests, nor would they say how many of those arrested were jailed.
