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Oscarologist picks: Scott Feinberg

February 11, 2009|Scott Feinberg | The Feinberg Files blog is at TheEnvelope.com.

We gathered TheEnvelope.com's Oscar gurus to ask them about their picks for this year's awards. As it turns out, there was a surprising amount of agreement among the three, with all giving the best director and picture nods to Danny Boyle and "Slumdog Millionaire" ("Doubt," "Frost/Nixon" and "The Reader" split the small-movie vote, says Pete Hammond, with "Benjamin Button" coming in second). Here is a sampling of their other picks.

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Although the outcome of the best picture, director and supporting actor races appear to be written, several others remain up for grabs.

ACTRESS

Kate Winslet has been nominated six times without ever winning and many want that wrong to be righted. I think this is the year that will happen. One can never count out the awards queen (Meryl Streep) or the next big thing (Anne Hathaway), but I wouldn't bet against Winslet.

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SUPPORTING ACTOR

Heath Ledger will win. Had he not died, though, it is debatable whether his performance would have been received so gushingly, or been nominated, or stood a chance of beating out other prolific actors who popped up several times this year, including Josh Brolin, Robert Downey Jr. and Philip Seymour Hoffman.

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ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The only best picture nominee represented here is "Milk," so look for Dustin Lance Black to win. One can't discount "Wall-E," which is widely regarded as "the 'Citizen Kane' of animated movies," but I suspect genre-bias will hold it back.

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