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Oscarologist picks: Tom O'Neil

February 11, 2009|Tom O'Neil | The Gold Derby blog is at TheEnvelope.com.

We gathered TheEnvelope.com's Oscar gurus to ask them about their picks for this year's awards. As it turns out, there was a surprising amount of agreement among the three, with all giving the best director and picture nods to Danny Boyle and "Slumdog Millionaire" ("Doubt," "Frost/Nixon" and "The Reader" split the small-movie vote, says Pete Hammond, with "Benjamin Button" coming in second). Here is a sampling of their other picks.

These predictions are 100% accurate -- except where they're wrong, so, please don't bet your ranch.

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ACTOR

Heavyweight match: The wrestler vs. the gay-rights slugger. Mickey Rourke gives a more muscular performance, but he gets crushed by Sean Penn, who portrays a real person in an important story about an ongoing issue.

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ACTRESS

Kate Winslet triumphs because she has a foreign accent in a movie in which she ages, she's naked and it's about the Holocaust. Who can beat that? Well, maybe Mother Superior Meryl Streep, but Kate's overdue.

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SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz snagged most early awards and she's in a Woody Allen flick (his actors have won this category three times). But here is where most upsets occur. Watch out for Viola Davis.

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ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Best pic champs usually claim a screenplay prize, so "Slumdog" it is. Based on an F. Scott Fitzgerald story, "Button" could upset but the film strayed far from its source.

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