WASHINGTON AND JERUSALEM — Elections in Israel this week left uncertainty about the shape of a new government, but little doubt that the Obama administration had suffered a setback in its bid to mobilize efforts to bring peace to the Middle East.
The surge in votes Tuesday for conservative parties revealed declining support for negotiations with a divided Palestinian leadership. Analysts and officials said that whether the new government is formed by the right-wing Likud party or the centrist Kadima, it probably would be too divided to conduct a peace negotiation, even if it wants to.
Neither party could form a government "that would have much receptivity to a major negotiation effort," said Samuel Lewis, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel.
The Palestinians had an even bleaker assessment.
"The Israelis have voted in favor of a state of total paralysis," said Saeb Erekat, the chief Palestinian negotiator.
Although Obama's new team might be able to help stabilize the Gaza Strip after weeks of heavy fighting, and gradually improve Palestinian living conditions and institutions, experts say chances for a comprehensive peace deal have been further diminished -- at least for some time.
U.S. officials acknowledged the difficulty of their task but said they thought Israel's new government would move toward peace because it's in the national interest.
"We have plenty of basis to work with whatever government comes in," said a State Department official who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue.
Middle East experts said the new conservative cast of the government would make U.S.-Israeli friction more likely in several areas.
One is over the accelerating growth of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Another is over how to deal with the Palestinian government if the Palestinian Authority, which controls the West Bank, tries again to form a unity government with the rival Hamas faction controlling Gaza.
Many experts foresee a potential clash over how to deal with Iran's nuclear program. Although the Obama administration is preparing to make a diplomatic approach to Tehran, Israelis are worried that Iran may be close to acquiring the means to make a nuclear weapon -- and they are inclined to use force.
With 99% of the votes counted Wednesday, Kadima, led by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, had 28 seats in the 120-member Knesset, one more than Likud, which is led by onetime Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
