"Some would say March was a watershed event. The decision to take on the extremists in Basra, Sadr City and Amarah . . . infused confidence in the Iraqi security forces," said Army Brig. Gen. Robin Swan, the deputy U.S. commander in Baghdad.
The danger, however, is that U.S. forces will gradually lose their ability to judge the good and bad players in Iraq's power struggles as the American military forces are scaled down to smaller training and combat units. Before the U.S. military changed strategy in 2007 and sent troops to live in city neighborhoods, the troops often didn't have a firm grasp of which residents, political figures, Iraqi soldiers or police were abetting armed groups.
"If they are not out there pushing the envelope, they may not know what good is," said a U.S. advisor to the Iraqi government.
"They will not have the information on which to operate successfully."
Also clouding the outlook for long-term stability are growing rifts among the members of the country's ruling coalition. The coming elections could fracture political alliances, encourage power grabs or incite winners and losers alike to resort to violence.
"Political competition here is . . . definitely a contact sport," the U.S. diplomat said. "Are some people going to get hurt? Probably some."
Maliki's allies speak darkly of his erstwhile partners and fellow Shiites in the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, the bloc that opposes his vision of a strong national government.
"They want their own southern Kurdistan," said Sami Askari, a lawmaker and confidant of the prime minister, referring to hopes among some for a semiautonomous Shiite south. "I say to them, 'What about Iraq?' They say, 'Damn Iraq.' "
Askari emphasized that such ideas were not championed by the party's leadership, but by rank-and-file members.
Tensions have also mounted between the Kurds and Maliki over disputed territories in northern Iraq. Massoud Barzani, the president of Kurdistan's regional government, has denounced Maliki's efforts to assert control over areas that the Kurds wish to annex. The barbed exchanges have raised concern that Iraq's Arabs and Kurds could return to the wars that have marked their history.
Relations between Maliki's government and the Sunnis are also strained. Despite the return of the main Sunni bloc to the government last summer after a walkout that lasted nearly a year, little has occurred in the way of real reconciliation.
