The passage of an amnesty law last winter has left thousands of Sunni detainees waiting for their cases to be reviewed; a law to address the expulsion of former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party from state jobs has not restored balance to the nation's civil service.
Another unresolved issue is the fate of the Sons of Iraq -- former insurgents who decided to fight alongside the Americans against the Islamic militant group Al Qaeda in Iraq. The U.S.-administered program has been transferred to the government's control in most of central Iraq, but some militia leaders have been detained by the Iraqi army, often on dubious charges and over the objections of American officers and diplomats.
The lack of progress on these issues could breathe new life into Sunni militant groups still bent on fighting the Shiite-led government.
The provincial elections in January could help Maliki strengthen the executive branch. Already, army, police and elite security units report to his office. If his Islamic Dawa Party does well at the polls, the prime minister will win a greater voice in local affairs.
His drive to expand his powers has encouraged speculation that an authoritarian regime could gradually emerge in Iraq, by way of the prime minister, his successor or a coup.
"The society could return to its past," the U.S. advisor said. "People here today don't have experience with modern democratic practices or anything except favoritism and authoritarianism being effective. So it will take at least a generation for a new culture to be developed."
Even Shiite political leaders speak conspiratorially about the atmosphere. In mid-December, the arrest and release of up to 24 Interior Ministry officers over an alleged anti-government plot were described by observers as an internal feud within the Shiite halls of power.
Despite the skirmishing, people have tried to resume their lives as they were before Iraq fell apart. At night, families head to the newest Baghdad restaurant; wedding caravans cruise by with the revelers banging on drums. Shops selling alcoholic beverages, once closed, do a brisk business; cellphones ring with the latest pop jingle, instead of the religious chants popular a year ago.
But the ethnic and sectarian conflicts have left people deeply confused.
On a recent day, Ali Majeed, an engineer, walked in Baghdad's Karada commercial district, buzzing with shoppers. Like others, he was uncertain about what lay ahead for Iraq. He tried to make sense of the coming departure of the Americans and the country's unresolved problems.
"We live in a country where each faction wants to subject the others to his rule," he said. "They are forgetting that the Iraqi people need to heal."
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ned.parker@latimes.com
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Times staff writer Ali Hameed contributed to this report.
