There's impressive agreement between the Oscars and SAG Awards. Over the last 14 years, academy voters agreed with 20 of SAG's 28 lead actors and actresses and 15 of the guild's 29 supporting performers. (In 1997, there was an extra SAG supporting actress winner because of a tie.) Comparison is tricky in some cases: Benicio Del Toro won lead actor for "Traffic" at SAG and supporting at the Academy Awards in 2001.
Oscars
ACTOR
Favorites
For The Record
Los Angeles Times Saturday, January 10, 2009 Home Edition Main News Part A Page 2 National Desk 1 inches; 62 words Type of Material: Correction
SAG awards: In The Envelope section on Wednesday, the In Contention column about the Screen Actors Guild film nominations said that no one had ever won the award posthumously. However, two performers received the award posthumously for television roles: Raul Julia for his role in the TV movie "The Burning Season" in 1995 and Jerry Orbach for "Law & Order" in 2005.
For The Record
Los Angeles Times Wednesday, January 28, 2009 Home Edition The Envelope Part S Page 5 Calendar Desk 1 inches; 46 words Type of Material: Correction
SAG awards: In discussing the SAG film nominations in the Jan. 7 Envelope section, the In Contention column said no one had won the award posthumously. However, two performers have received the award posthumously for television roles: Raul Julia in 1995 and Jerry Orbach in 2005.
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Revolutionary Road"
Clint Eastwood, "Gran Torino"
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor"
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk"
Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case
of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"
Spotlight: Four contenders look like good bets for Oscar bids since they were nominated by SAG and the Golden Globes: Langella, Penn, Pitt and Rourke. Who'll get the fifth Oscar slot? Some pundits are stubbornly backing Eastwood even though he was snubbed by both awards, which is usually the kiss of death. Others believe voters will include one token art-house option, as they often do -- that's Jenkins.
Possible
Josh Brolin, "W."
Daniel Craig, "Defiance"
Benicio Del Toro, "Che"
Dustin Hoffman, "Last Chance Harvey"
Hugh Jackman, "Australia"
Ben Kingsley, "Elegy"
Michael Sheen, "Frost/Nixon"
Will Smith, "Seven Pounds"
ACTRESS
Favorites
Cate Blanchett, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
Sally Hawkins, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"
Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
Kristin Scott Thomas, "I've Loved You
So Long"
Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road"
Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
Spotlight: No doubt Meryl Streep will increase her record tally of nominations to 15, but she's only won twice ("Sophie's Choice," "Kramer vs. Kramer"). By contrast, Katharine Hepburn prevailed four times with 12 bids. Will voters feel pity for Streep, who hasn't triumphed in 26 years? Or do they assume she's already won a million Oscars because her name keeps popping up? Watch out for the possibility that Winslet could be nominated in lead for "The Reader" instead of "Revolutionary Road." Oscar voting rules are different than SAG and Golden Globes, which bought her dubious claim that "The Reader" role is supporting.
Possible
Kate Beckinsale, "Nothing but the Truth"
Penelope Cruz, "Elegy"
Nicole Kidman, "Australia"
Keira Knightley, "The Duchess"
Emma Thompson, "Last Chance Harvey"
Michelle Williams, "Wendy and Lucy"
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Favorites
Josh Brolin, "Milk"
Robert Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
David Kross, "The Reader"
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
Eddie Marsan, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Dev Patel, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Spotlight: Can anybody beat Heath Ledger? Brolin had another big year ("W.," "Milk") after starring in the last best picture champ, "No Country for Old Men." Downey had a hefty year too ("Iron Man," "Tropic Thunder") and is appealing because his personal story involves a triumph over drug addiction. If "Slumdog" wins best picture, as many pundits predict, that boosts Patel since the film champ usually claims at least one acting award.
Possible
Alan Alda, "Nothing but the Truth"
Tom Cruise, "Tropic Thunder"
Ralph Fiennes, "The Reader"
James Franco, "Milk"
Emile Hirsch, "Milk"
Dennis Hopper, "Elegy"
Bill Irwin, "Rachel Getting Married"
Liev Schreiber, "Defiance"
Michael Shannon, "Revolutionary Road"
Brandon Walters, "Australia"
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Favorites
Amy Adams, "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky
Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis, "Doubt"
Rosemarie DeWitt, "Rachel
Getting Married"
Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case
of Benjamin Button"
Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler"
Debra Winger, "Rachel Getting Married"
Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
Spotlight: Considering the past success of Woody Allen actors in the supporting races, Penelope Cruz is the early front-runner, but these second-tier categories are where upsets most frequently occur. Watch out for Viola Davis in the heart-tugging role of a mother who decides not to challenge a priest who may be molesting her son. Adriane Lenox won a Tony Award for the role on Broadway.
Possible
Kathy Bates, "Revolutionary Road"
Rebecca Hall, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Beyonce Knowles, "Cadillac Records"
Queen Latifah, "The Secret Life of Bees"
Lena Olin, "The Reader"
Tilda Swinton, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
SAG Movies
ACTOR
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor"
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk"
Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"
Spotlight: Many pundits believe Sean Penn is ahead at the Oscars, but don't make that same assumption at SAG. When he won the Academy Award five years ago for "Mystic River," he lost SAG to Johnny Depp ("Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl"). Does that mean fellow actors have an issue with the notoriously huffy Penn?
ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"
Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road"
