BEIRUT — With memories of a destructive war 29 months ago still vivid, Lebanese political leaders for days have assured their constituents that the powerful Shiite Muslim militant organization Hezbollah wouldn't dare enter the fray between its fellow Islamists of Hamas and the groups' longtime common enemy, Israel.
But as the Israeli offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip continues to rage, many are beginning to wonder what it would take for Hezbollah to open a new military front in order to distract Israel and ease the pressure on Hamas to the south.
That question took on a fresh urgency this morning when three to five rockets fired from Lebanon struck northern Israel, causing minor injuries five miles from the frontier, and Israel responded with its own barrage of rockets, Israeli and Lebanese officials said.
There was no claim of responsibility for the initial attack, and the short-range Katyusha rockets could have been fired by one of the Lebanese-based Palestinian groups with no affiliation to Hezbollah. Palestinian militants in Lebanon fired two rockets into northern Israel in June 2007.
For now, most Lebanese analysts and political leaders say Hezbollah wouldn't risk its domestic popularity ahead of critical May parliamentary elections it believes will solidify its power. Lebanese Information Minister Tarek Mitri told reporters Monday of a nationwide "sense of not wanting to be drawn into this" conflict.
"Expressing solidarity with Gaza," he said, "does not mean wanting to provoke an Israeli attack on Lebanon, or giving any pretext for that."
So far, Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah has given no indication that his militia, replenished with rockets from Iran and Syria since its summer 2006 war with Israel, would launch or provoke a new conflict. A Hezbollah Cabinet minister even agreed last week to a Lebanese government statement pledging to keep the politically divided country from being drawn into the conflict.
But on Wednesday, Nasrallah did warn of dire consequences if Israel struck first.
"We are ready for any aggression," he told followers chanting "Death to Israel!" at annual Ashura religious ceremonies. "If you come to our villages, our lands, our neighborhoods, you Zionists will discover that the July [2006] war was nothing compared with what you'll face this time."
