Kremlin uses gas as a weapon

The reaction in Europe is very different from what it was during a similar cutoff in 2006. With Ukraine fresh off its Orange Revolution and looking westward for support, most Europeans blamed Russia then. Now, they're not sure who's to blame -- and for good reason. Ukraine's energy sector is deeply corrupt, so there's every possibility that it has been siphoning off gas meant for Europe. Moreover, Russia is justified in demanding that the country move toward paying market price, though Gazprom's contract demands are so excessive that meeting them would leave Ukraine's struggling economy in tatters. European Union officials, meanwhile, have been slow to act, though they're hoping the Russians will turn on their gas again if they can set up an EU mission to monitor the flow through Ukraine to ensure that it isn't being diverted.

Europe's response to the dispute is important because it will guide future pipeline decisions that would have big repercussions for Gazprom and for Eastern Europe. With heavy support from Berlin, Gazprom is backing a pipeline under the Baltic Sea that would pump gas directly from Russia to Germany, bypassing the countries in between as well as Ukraine. It's also proposing a pipeline that would send gas directly to southern Europe under the Black Sea. If Russia is seen as an unreliable supplier, it could halt both these projects. Yet if they're built, it would leave Moscow free to use gas as a cudgel to force Western-leaning countries such as Poland and Ukraine into line because it would be able to shut off their gas without interrupting the flow to Europe, whose money it needs to keep the Russian economy afloat.

The dangers in Europe's over-reliance on Russian gas have been apparent for some time, leading to frequent calls for more diversity of supply. Cost and political factors continue to stand in the way; what's more, in the strategic game of petro-diplomacy, Putin seems to be a far cleverer player than most of his counterparts. All the more reason for Europe -- and the United States, which has energy supply problems of its own, given its reliance on hostile countries such as Venezuela for its oil -- to speed their transition to nonfossil energy sources and dramatically greater energy efficiency.