CARACAS, VENEZUELA — Despite the prospect of economic hard times as oil revenue plunges, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is preparing to go before voters with a plea that they've rejected once before: End term limits that block him from staying in power indefinitely.
The National Electoral Commission is expected this week to set a Feb. 15 date for a referendum seeking approval of a measure that would allow Chavez and all other elected officials to run for reelection an unlimited number of times.
With some recent surveys showing 55% or more of respondents opposing such a measure to extend presidential term limits beyond the current two six-year terms, the plan raises the question: "Why now?"
The answer may well be: now or never.
Barring a dramatic increase in oil prices, Venezuela could suffer a severe recession. The deep cuts in public welfare projects that would ensue would make any future term limit measure even less likely to win approval.
"Chavez sees himself as the eternal comandante but if he loses this, he'll be gone in four years," said Ricardo Sucre, a political scientist at Central University of Venezuela. "He's in a hurry because he doesn't want to bet on an uncertain future."
Knowing the stakes, Chavez is campaigning nonstop, painting dire scenarios for voters of what a defeat would mean: the end of his welfare projects in Venezuela, a victory for the U.S. "empire," and perhaps even civil war if his supporters don't accept defeat, not to mention the end to Chavismo in early 2013 when his current term expires.
In December 2007, Chavez narrowly lost a vote to rewrite 69 articles of Venezuela's Constitution, including one that would have abolished term limits.
Although Chavez remains highly popular after nearly 10 years in office, recent polls indicate that a majority of voters oppose letting him cling to power indefinitely, said Saul Cabrera, head of the Consultores 21 polling firm.
"His personalizing of this issue has won him a few points, but the fact is, Venezuelans now as in the past are against open-ended reelections," Cabrera said. "They think, 'This benefits Hugo Chavez, not me as a person.' "
How deep a recession may be in store depends on how oil prices behave.
If they remain at today's levels, the government will see revenue from crude export sales fall by more than half this year compared with 2008, a devastating scenario for a country that relies on oil for 92% of exports and 60% of the government budget.
