JERUSALEM — In declaring a cease-fire Saturday in Gaza, Israel asserted that it had achieved its goals: hurting Hamas' military wing, discouraging rocket fire into Israel and cutting the flow of smuggled arms into Gaza. But Israel had a broader goal: sending a tough message to its arch-enemies Iran and Hezbollah.
Israeli leaders say the pounding of Hamas dealt a blow to Iran, which Israel accuses of backing the Palestinian group, and to Hezbollah, the Shiite militia in Lebanon that fought Israel to a stalemate in 2006.
"The operation proved again the power of Israel and improved its deterrence against those who threaten it," Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said.
Nonetheless, as Gaza quiets down, Israeli security officials acknowledge that the wider conflict could escalate, as it plays out in secret skirmishes in the Middle East and beyond.
For months, Israeli intelligence services have girded for a possible attack overseas intended to avenge the assassination last year of Imad Mughniyah, a Hezbollah warlord who was close to Iran. Israeli security officials say the threat has intensified as the Gaza bloodshed converges with the anniversary next month of Mughniyah's death, for which Hezbollah blames Israel.
"If there is a cease-fire and a perception that Hamas was defeated, it will put even more pressure on them, and on the Iranians, to strike to achieve a balance," an Israeli security official said on condition of anonymity, citing security reasons. "It's a war of the narrative. The one who controls the narrative is the one who wins."
Many Israelis see Hamas as a proxy of Iran, whose sponsorship of militant groups and whose alleged nuclear ambitions pose an existential threat as far as Israel's government is concerned.
"Iran has two arms, one is Hezbollah in the north for many years, since the 1980s, and the second arm is Hamas in the Gaza Strip since 2001," Avi Dichter, Israel's minister of internal security, said in a recent interview. "The whole philosophy of war of Hamas in Gaza Strip is a pure emulation of Hezbollah in Lebanon."
But Israeli security officials acknowledge that Gaza is not Lebanon and Hamas is not Hezbollah. The Palestinian group has not displayed the fighting prowess that enabled Hezbollah to portray the 2006 war with Israel as a victory and led to the replacement of Israeli defense chiefs.
