Paramount Pictures Chairman Brad Grey is elated that his pet movie "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" topped the Academy Award nominations Thursday with 13 nods, including best picture. But such elation could be tempered by a sobering reality.
Although Oscar honors can lead to an increase in ticket sales as moviegoers flock to theaters to see what all the hoopla is about, the boost may not be enough to help make "Button" a financial home run for Paramount.
The hurdles facing "Button" underscore how risky so-called "prestige pictures," even ones showered with accolades, have become for the major Hollywood studios. Those movies, which aim to marry critical acclaim with mainstream commercial success, have long been a cornerstone in the film industry. Now, as the recession pounds Hollywood and DVD sales dramatically cool, such costly adult dramas are under harsh scrutiny.
"Against the backdrop of flat-to-negative box-office and DVD sales, these are the kind of indulgences the studio can't afford to take on," said Larry Gerbrandt, a principal in the media research firm Media Valuation Partners.
"Button" stars Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett in an adaptation of the F. Scott Fitzgerald story about a man who ages in reverse. Not only did Paramount and co-financing partner Warner Bros. spend $150 million to make it, but the companies will also be laying out an additional $135 million to market and distribute the picture worldwide, according to a person familiar with the situation. Since the movie opened Dec. 25, Paramount has spent lavishly to promote "Button," particularly on its Oscar campaign, which some industry executives estimate could exceed $10 million.
And with more than a dozen nominations to brag about, Paramount's spending on "Button" will shoot up in the weeks ahead before the Oscars are awarded Feb. 22 -- especially as it goes toe-to-toe against front-runner "Slumdog Millionaire," a small-budget film from Fox Searchlight without any Hollywood stars.
In the run-up to the Academy Awards, "Button" probably will benefit from an "Oscar bump" in ticket sales. At the same time it presents Paramount with a major challenge: For every dollar it spends on advertising, "Button" needs to earn $2 at the box office, because theaters keep half the ticket proceeds.
