For a key indicator of industrial strength and consumer confidence, a 28% year-over-year decline would seem nothing short of disastrous.
But when that indicator is automobile sales, and that industry has been slogging through its worst run in decades, a 28% slide somehow doesn't seem that bad.
In June, Americans bought 859,847 cars and light trucks, according to data released by automakers Wednesday and compiled by Autodata Corp. That's the smallest monthly sales falloff since September. And even though the industry hasn't seen a sales increase in nearly two years, it was enough for executives to begin -- ever so cautiously -- to spot green shoots amid the rusted steel.
"The tide seems to have shifted in recent weeks," said Jim Farley, head of marketing and communications at Ford Motor Co., the only American automaker not to have taken government bailout funding.
The nation's second-largest automaker saw its sales decline just 11% from a year earlier. That's by far the best performance of any major automaker, a performance Farley attributed to the quality of its new vehicles rather than to any gains from disgruntled former customers of troubled General Motors Corp. and Chrysler.
And though GM and Toyota Motor Corp. saw more substantial drops, of 33% and 32%, respectively, both enjoyed improvement over recent months' results, which rank among the weakest in their histories. That prompted executives at the two automakers to suggest that the worst was officially behind.
"We feel pretty strongly that the bottom was hit earlier in the year," said Mark LaNeve, head of sales, service and marketing at GM, who fingered February, when sales declined 41.4%.
With the long-anticipated bankruptcies of Chrysler and GM behind, even the analysts seemed ready to call the end of bad times. "It is unlikely things will get any worse," said Jesse Toprak, head of industry analysis at Edmunds.com.
Not that June was all that great.
Chrysler Group, now controlled by Italian automaker Fiat, saw its sales fall 42% in a month in which it shut down 789 of its dealers. Honda Motor Co. saw its sales decline 30% compared with June of last year. Nissan Motor Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. managed to look downright respectable because they each bagged sales declines of less than 25%.
Ford and Toyota, calling a recovery, even bragged of plans to boost production in the third quarter, and several companies mentioned improved consumer credit despite the fact that it's nearly impossible to get a car loan with a credit score below 720 these days.
