Her son, Jason Speer, the company's vice president, says he'll wait for several months of stable business before he even considers hiring. "We're not there yet," he said.
For workers, "it's going to be a difficult slog back," said Sophia Koropeckyj, a labor economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pa. Though the economy is expected to grow again this year, analysts say, meaningful job growth won't happen until 2011 at the earliest.
All this spells trouble for the Obama administration, which is facing increased pressure to show results from its massive stimulus package and other intervention in the economy. Obama's public approval ratings, though still high, have slipped lately, in large part because of waning support for his handling of the economy.
Obama's economic aides say the job situation would have been much worse without his $787-billion stimulus plan. By the end of next year, the administration's recovery efforts will have created or saved 3.5 million jobs, according to Jared Bernstein, chief economist and economic policy advisor to Vice President Joe Biden.
Analysts say it is a reasonable estimate, though it has been sharply criticized by Republicans. But that still leaves a huge job deficit. Bernstein declined to give a forecast of unemployment and the economic recovery, saying they will be addressed in a White House report to be released later this summer.
Until job growth revives, the administration is extending unemployment benefits for workers and investing $4 billion into worker training programs, Labor Secretary Hilda Solis said.
Obama also touts a surge in green jobs as a result of his policy. But most analysts say it will take several years before a substantial number of such jobs begin to appear.
Expectations in manufacturing aren't high either. Factory payrolls never rebounded after the 2001 tech-bubble recession, in large part because jobs were permanently lost to foreign rivals or productivity gains. This time may be no different, with hundreds of thousands of jobs cut in automobile-related industries.
Construction and finance payrolls also are likely to remain subdued, as are retail and trade.
All of which leads Kim Megonigal, chief executive of Kimco Staffing Services Inc. of Irvine, to ask: Which sector is going to lead the recovery?
"I don't see any job drivers other than government," said Megonigal, whose firm has 25 offices in California.
"A year ago, we were filling 600 jobs a week," he said. "We're down to 150."
Temporary-help firms are often the first to see evidence of a rebound in jobs after a recession. But Megonigal doesn't see anything stirring at the moment. He says he started his firm in 1986 but has never seen anything like this.
"Employers are telling us to wait, they don't know. It's a lack of confidence."
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don.lee@latimes.com
