"Oil will drop to $20 a barrel by the end of the year because this situation just cannot be sustained," Verleger said.
Bob van der Valk, a fuel price analyst, predicted that oil would drop to $40 by the end of the year and that Californians would be paying about $2 a gallon for regular gasoline.
"In normal years you have seasonally adjusted pricing, and 2009 is looking like our first normal year since 2006," Van der Valk said. "By year's end, oil and gasoline will be coming down."
That would be a result similar to 2008, when crude oil futures went from their highest close of $145.29 a barrel last July 3 to less than $34 a barrel in December, and gasoline prices dropped accordingly.
Other analysts said such thinking was premature.
Phil Flynn, vice president and senior market analyst for Alaron Trading Co., said the real test would be in the coming weeks, when oil's direction would become clearer.
"It's too soon to say that a correction is about to occur," Flynn said.
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ron.white@latimes.com
