By Julian E. Barnes|July 05, 2009
Reporting from Washington — Top Pentagon officials have grown increasingly confident in the nation's missile defense system at a time when North Korea is threatening to conduct a long-range launch, leading to speculation of a possible showdown in the exosphere.
Though military officials said a clash between missiles of opposing nations was unlikely, preparations for possible action are at the most advanced stage yet. That is in part because of fears that a North Korean test as early as this weekend could involve a missile directed toward Hawaii.
The communist regime launched seven ballistic missiles Saturday into waters separating the Korean peninsula and Japan. The South Korean government said the missiles flew about 250 miles.
North Korea also launched four short-range missiles on Thursday, although there have been fewer signs in recent days of prelaunch activities pointing to a missile capable of intercontinental reach.
Citing a potential threat to Hawaii, the U.S. last month deployed a gigantic sea-based radar system that officials say can guide underground interceptor missiles in Alaska and California toward long-range missiles in flight. The military also has intermediate-range land-based missiles, as well as specially equipped ships from which interceptors could be launched.
Last month, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Marine Gen. James Cartwright, said he was "90%-plus" confident in the ability of the U.S. missile defense system. And Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said there was a "high probability" the system would work if used.
In 2006, the Pentagon had played down expectations that it might use its missile defense system to try to cut short a North Korean launch that ended up failing on its own. Much of the increased confidence this time around is due to recent advances in radar, along with a record of successful tests and an increased number of interceptor missiles.
Henry A. "Trey" Obering III, a retired Air Force lieutenant general who stepped down from the Missile Defense Agency late last year, said the radar system sent to Hawaii had significantly expanded U.S. defensive capabilities.
The system is known as sea-based X-band radar, a reference to the electromagnetic frequency at which it operates. The higher frequency provides more detailed resolution than other radar and enables interceptor missiles to distinguish between lethal weapons and decoys or other debris.
