The problem for Palin and her party is that she doesn't have what Republicans need most: an idea.
For the last half-century, the GOP has prided itself on being the "party of ideas," a coalition that constantly invented new ways to apply its basic principles -- smaller government, lower taxes and an assertive foreign policy -- to the nation's problems.
Under George W. Bush, the string of successful ideas ran out. In 2008, it was the Democrats of Barack Obama, not the GOP, who won by proposing a detailed agenda of new policies and new initiatives.
In Congress, a notably uncharismatic collection of Republican leaders continues to reaffirm the ancient tenets of their faith: Government spending is bad, and taxes should be reduced. But that won't add up to a winning national platform unless Obama turns out to be a miserable failure and voters reflexively turn the other way.
Hence the search by many Republicans for an attractive idea or two. In 2000, Bush won votes from independents and centrists by proclaiming himself a "compassionate conservative," a governor who reformed his state's education system even as he kept a close eye on the purse strings.
And Palin? A voter interested in her approach to national issues will look in vain for new ideas. Her 18-minute statement on Friday introduced a new aphorism to American politics: "Only dead fish go with the flow." But it offered no priorities for Alaska or the nation beyond a handful of broad-brush goals: "Energy independence and smaller government and national security and freedom."
In her 2008 vice presidential campaign and since, she has been a champion not so much of ideas as of attitudes: anger at the national media, fear of a "big-government takeover," and the charge that unnamed liberals (presumably including Barack and Michelle Obama) "deride" American ideals. Those aren't ideas; they're slogans.
Palin may have the recipe for winning the hearts of the 37% of Americans who describe themselves as conservatives, but it won't attract votes from the 38% who call themselves moderates -- and who remain the key to any presidential election.
Which brings us to Palin's second flaw as a national candidate: She's a polarizer, not a unifier.
Bush, now remembered as a polarizing president, won the White House twice by tempering his conservatism just enough to win a hearing from independents. Palin knows no such urge. It is easy to imagine her winning an Iowa caucus, where the Republican electorate is dominated by social conservatives, but almost impossible to imagine her winning a primary in New Hampshire or Michigan, let alone a general election in 50 states.
