From the beginning the program was controversial, criticized for boosting abortions, sterilizations and infanticide. It is also blamed for China's gender gap. The cultural preference for boys has resulted in 32 million more males than females under the age of 20, according to one study.
China's fertility rate now averages 1.8, less than replacement. Falling fertility is common as countries become more prosperous; China's rate has been declining for decades. But there's no question that the one-child policy reduced fertility faster and sooner, a process some have dubbed "premature aging."
Still, lifting the one-child rule probably wouldn't result in a population surge, experts said. Chinese have become accustomed to having smaller families and enjoying a bit more disposable income.
"The momentum makes the problem difficult to see," said Baochang Gu, a demographer at Renmin University of China. "It creates an illusion that we won't need to do anything. But it may be too late."
China's shrinking working-age population is projected to shave 0.7 percentage points annually off China's GDP starting in 2030. But the sick and aged will require an increasing share of resources.
Bachelor Zhu Zi Ran moved into the Ruijin Road retirement facility six months ago after he suffered a blood clot in his brain. The diminutive man in oversized Harry Caray-style glasses said he felt lucky to be there considering how few beds were available. He spends about $200 out of his $250 monthly pension to stay at the retirement home.
"I have to save the rest because my health is not good," Zhu, 67, said. "The only thing I spend money on is cigarettes. I'm not that addicted, so I only smoke half a pack a day."
The fate of seniors from the countryside is even more precarious. Xu Gang Kai, a 60-year-old native of central China's Henan province, was told he was too healthy to be admitted to his village retirement home. So he left for Beijing a year ago to find work.
Xu said he could not count on his only child for help.
"I've got nothing back home," he said. "No land, no housing, no plans."
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david.pierson@latimes.com
Cao Jun and Nicole Liu in Beijing contributed to this report.
