"I just don't see where he gets the funding necessary to run a competitive Republican primary," said Marty Wilson, who has led fundraising for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Apart from campaigning for McCain, Fiorina has a scant public record on policy. But on abortion, often a crucial issue in Senate races because senators vote on court nominees, she has described herself as "pro-life." Because California voters favor abortion rights, that is a potential albatross in a contest against Boxer, even if it helps Fiorina secure her party's nomination.
Most challenging for Fiorina would be her status as a novice candidate, never vetted by a dogged rival or scrutinized by the media as a potential holder of public office.
"First-time candidates are often not perfect candidates," said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, who nonetheless sees Fiorina as someone who would automatically diminish Boxer's edge in the race.
Even before Fiorina announces whether she will run, Boxer is laboring to dispatch her into the ranks of corporate chieftains who could not survive the rigors of a California campaign for public office. Among other things, Boxer's campaign is publicizing that Portfolio magazine, now defunct, named Fiorina the 19th worst CEO of all time.
However Fiorina's performance at HP is rated -- lavish compensation, layoffs and a messy merger would be sure to figure in the campaign -- it is tough for any executive to run for office at a time when many voters see corporate shenanigans as a top cause of the global economic crisis.
"I think it will be interesting to see how she takes her record at HP and turns it into a compelling reason to elect her to the Senate," said Boxer campaign manager Rose Kapolczynski.
It also is uncertain how agile Fiorina would be in day-to-day campaigning. McCain effectively exiled Fiorina after she told a radio station that his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, was unqualified to be a chief executive -- then added later that so were McCain and those on the Democratic ticket, Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
Still, with the Republican Party facing deep troubles, both nationally and in California, Fiorina's potential candidacy has drawn an enthusiastic response from some of her party's major donors.
"I'm just always impressed with people who can understand a balance sheet, the creation of wealth, the preservation of wealth and tax policy," said Mark Chapin Johnson, a pharmaceutical magnate, who has not discussed the campaign with her.
Boxer's liberal record has sharply divided voters, and she has long been less popular than California's other U.S. senator, fellow Democrat Dianne Feinstein. A Field Poll released in March found voters about evenly divided on Boxer's reelection, with 43% inclined to support her and 44% leaning against. But in a hypothetical matchup with Fiorina, voters favored Boxer 55% to 25%.
For Fiorina, the outlook was less bleak in the Republican primary. The survey found Fiorina ahead of DeVore among registered Republicans 31% to 19%, with 50% undecided.
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michael.finnegan@latimes.com
