WASHINGTON — Here's yet another result of the bad economy: California's congressional delegation is unlikely to grow and could even lose a seat after next year's census for the first time since stagecoach days.
If the state loses a seat, it could weaken California's clout in Washington and reduce the amount of federal money flowing to the state. It could also set off a game of political musical chairs, forcing two incumbents to run against each other.
As if that weren't enough, the state that stands to gain the most new seats is California's longtime rival, Texas, the second most populous state.
With the possible loss of a seat, "an accurate census becomes all the more important to California," said Terri Ann Lowenthal, a former staff director of the House census oversight subcommittee and a member of President Obama's transition team for the census.
As California's population has increased -- through the booms of the 1880s, the post-World War II years and the 1980s -- so has its clout in Congress.
The delegation has grown every time Congress has reapportioned House seats to reflect population changes. The state gained nine seats -- the most ever -- after the 1930 census, seven after 1950, eight after 1960, seven after 1990 and one after the 2000 count.
The delegation now stands at 53, the largest of any state.
California neighbors Arizona and Nevada are expected to gain seats, as are Texas, Florida and Georgia. Texas alone could pick up as many as four. Michigan and Ohio, hard hit by the recession, are among the states expected to lose seats.
California's population has been growing at a slower rate than those of a number of other states, a key factor in apportioning congressional seats. It grew 1.1% last year, its lowest rate in a decade.
"The economy, no doubt, held down the growth rate in California," said UC Berkeley political scientist Bruce Cain.
Demographers believe that the size of California's delegation will most likely remain unchanged -- still significant because of its history of growth -- rather than decrease by one. But they also say the state is on the bubble.
"I would be very surprised if we lost a seat, but not at all surprised if we didn't gain any, based on the job growth," said Stephen Levy, director and senior economist of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.
