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California, the very emblem of growth, may be slowing down

THE WEEK

Some projections show the state could even lose a member of Congress in the next census.

July 19, 2009|Cathleen Decker

For the 159 years of its statehood, California has been fueled by growth, with all its exorbitant promise and messy reality. Wildlands turned into cities, suburbs and farmlands at warp speed; the momentum seemed unstoppable even as the mind reeled at how, exactly, the state was going to handle it all.

So it seemed more than jarring last week when some political demographers suggested that after the 2010 census, for the first time, mighty California could lose a seat in the House of Representatives because other places are lapping us in the momentum department.


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On that subject there is still much disagreement. Projections are based on differing sets of numbers, and the state's own figures suggest that California could still gain a seat. (State and federal estimates of California's population differ by more than 1 million people.)

Other demographers suggest that the state will remain at 53 seats, still by far the largest congressional delegation. But holding on is nothing like gaining seven to nine seats, as in recent decades.

The debate over which projection of population growth is most accurate might seem esoteric to drivers stuck on the 710 Freeway even during the summer vacation months. But the topic has real-life ramifications, because federal and state dollars flow on mathematical formulas tied to population. The size of the House delegation also has theoretical ramifications, though it is hard to get energized over the loss of a seat when the delegation manages to work together so infrequently.

Yet there is also the psychological effect.

Many Californians have grown tired of what growth represents; something "which used to be synonymous with sunshine and health and success now seems more malignant," as author and social commentator Don Waldie put it.

Still, for all the problems -- traffic, crowded schools, not enough water -- there may be a sense of loss as a place that once symbolized endless possibility finds itself giving up residents and representatives to Texas. And Arizona. And Nevada. And many other places.

Talk of losing a House seat seemed to signal a sudden shift. In truth, the shift has been a giant one, but none too sudden.

The California of yore, drawing people from far and wide, pretty much died more than a decade ago.

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