SEOUL — When North Korea detained two American TV journalists in March, accusing them of illegal entry and "hostile acts," analysts believed the script would be familiar: The pair would be tried, convicted and soon released in exchange for U.S. concessions.
But after a nuclear test in the secretive state that was harshly criticized worldwide, experts say the women could be sentenced to long prison terms with little chance for negotiation.
Laura Ling and Euna Lee are set to stand trial Thursday in Pyongyang's top Central Court, where few appeals are granted. Many say they face up to 15 years of hard labor.
"If I were these two women's families, I'd be very worried," said Marcus Noland, a senior fellow for the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a North Korea expert. "Even in the best-case scenario, North Korea sees these two as criminals who were presumably up to no good in a very serious way.
"They want to show their enemies that if people do things like this, illegally enter their country, they will pay a price. And the new tensions have raised the stakes even further."
Ling and Lee were on assignment for San Francisco-based Current TV when they were captured by North Korean guards along the sensitive border region with China.
The xenophobic nation has demonstrated that it does not tolerate intruders. In 1996, an intoxicated American who swam naked across a river from China into North Korea was held for three months on espionage charges before his release was negotiated by then-Rep. Bill Richardson of New Mexico.
The Obama administration had sought to quietly negotiate with North Korea after the March 17 arrest of the journalists, analysts say. U.S. officials were encouraged after Iran released American journalist Roxana Saberi, who spent four months in jail on spy charges.
A Current TV spokesman declined to comment.
Family members have expressed concern for the two journalists. Lee has a 4-year-old daughter, and Ling suffers from an ulcer that may have worsened during her captivity.
"It has been nearly three months since their arrest," their families said in a statement. "We have been holding our breath every day as we've watched the political situation on the Korean peninsula grow increasingly tense."
They also pleaded to North Korea for clemency.
