Reporting from Cairo — The widespread protests in Iran, even in the improbable event they deliver presidential challenger Mir-Hossein Mousavi to power, are unlikely to dramatically change the country's nuclear ambitions or the strategic complications the West faces in countering Tehran's political gambits across the Middle East.
Iran's nuclear program, which Washington alleges is intended to produce atomic weapons, is ingrained in the national psyche. It was begun decades ago and is embraced across the Iranian political spectrum. Its future rests more on the wishes of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the ruling clerics than it does with hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or the more moderate Mousavi.
The nuclear endeavor, along with geography, vast oil supplies and resistance to Western pressure, are crucial to Iran's stature in the region. The political tumult and bloodshed over the June 12 elections may force a shift in domestic policies, such as mending the troubled economy, but not a scientific mission that predates the 1979 Islamic Revolution and whose spinning centrifuges and technological breakthroughs have become a mark of pride.
"The elections are a crisis from within the system itself," said Hassan Nafaa, a political scientist at Cairo University. "It might change internal issues but the nuclear agenda will not be modified. Iranians are united around this.
"The reformers, however, might be more willing to open a dialogue with the U.S. and this could lead to compromise," he said. "The U.S. could give a little on the nuclear question in exchange for Iran's help in resolving the Arab-Israeli and other regional issues."
The battle between Ahmadinejad, who was declared winner of last week's election, and Mousavi, who is claiming fraud, illustrates the schism Iran faces in engaging the West: Ahmadinejad's harsh screeds or Mousavi's more conciliatory tone. Neither would sacrifice the country's nuclear vision, but Mousavi, who has a long history of support for atomic energy, but is perceived as more amenable to defusing international tensions that could lead to Iran working with the United States in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon.
The Obama administration, which has sought a diplomatic opening with Tehran, has voiced support for the protesters while trying to avoid statements that would make it more difficult to work with Iran's leadership. The fluid situation in Tehran leaves Washington with an unclear picture of how the nuclear issue might unfold.
