A shift in Iran would not change nuclear policy

"It is my gut feeling that Iran would like to have the technology to enable it to have nuclear weapons, if it decides to do so," ElBaradei told the BBC this week. "They want to send a message to their neighbors, to the rest of the world: Don't mess with us. But the ultimate aim of Iran, as I understand it, is they want to be recognized as a major power in the Middle East."

The Iranians say they are enriching uranium only to generate electricity for civilian use. Their view is that Washington and its allies are manipulating the nuclear issue as a pretext to weaken the Islamic Revolution in a Shiite Muslim nation that, unlike many of its Sunni Arab neighbors, stubbornly resists U.S. policy in the region. That defiance is one of Khamenei's guiding principles, and Tehran has used it to rally support at home, despite the population's frustrations with domestic problems such as inflation, unemployment and lack of civil liberties.

This week's protests "will only confirm in Khamenei's mind his oft-stated view that the nuclear issue is just an excuse used by the West to advance its plot to overthrow the Islamic Republic," said Patrick Clawson, deputy director for research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "To him, any compromise on the nuclear issue will only feed the West's efforts to overthrow him."

Ahmadinejad's colorful, barbed rhetoric has infuriated the West and frustrated the IAEA by occasionally appearing conciliatory and then returning to combativeness. For Israeli and American conservative politicians, Ahmadinejad, who was strongly supported in a speech Friday by Khamenei, is a one-dimensional bogeyman bent on conflict. His comments questioning the extent of the Holocaust and the Jewish state's right to exist have helped Israel's conservative prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, link resolving the Palestinian conflict with the need to stem Iran's nuclear aspirations.

"With Ahmadinejad as president, it is easier for Israel to explain the significance of the Iranian threat, and there is less chance that the American administration or the European governments will be tempted to believe that it is possible to achieve a comprehensive deal on the Iranian nuclear issue," said Ephraim Kam, deputy head of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.