WASHINGTON — Pakistan's military offensive against the Taliban has slowed the flow of arms and fighters into Afghanistan, U.S. officials say, and has prompted intelligence analysts to issue cautiously upbeat new assessments of Islamabad's ability to contain the threat of violent extremists.
U.S. intelligence and military officials said the revised outlook reflected a series of developments over the last few months, including not only the Pakistani military campaign in the country's Swat Valley, but shifting political currents that have prompted many Pakistanis to turn against extremist groups and back their government's anti-insurgency efforts.
"All of a sudden military operations [against militants] are being imbued with a kind of legitimacy, popular support and political support they have never had before," said a senior U.S. intelligence official who oversees analysis of the region, describing the evolving view on condition of anonymity.
Obama administration officials were warning only weeks ago that Pakistan's fragile government could succumb to a militant offensive that had drawn nearer to Islamabad, the capital, but the developments have changed the U.S. view.
The senior U.S. intelligence official described it as a "critical change" in a nation where the government has for years been reluctant to take on militants for fear of being accused of turning the Pakistani military against its own people and doing the bidding of the United States.
At the same time, U.S. military officials said this week that Pakistan's operations in Swat and South Waziristan were already having a measurable effect on the amount of equipment and violence spilling over the border into Afghanistan.
"There's a definite impact, and I think it almost can't be overstated," said Col. John Spiszer, who is the commander of the 3rd Brigade Combat Team of the 1st Infantry Division, a unit responsible for security operations in northeastern Afghanistan along the Pakistani border.
Spiszer said Taliban elements appeared to have concluded that they could no longer afford to send as many fighters or weapons into Afghanistan because they may be needed to fight the Pakistani army in tribal regions that the militants have used as safe havens since the Sept. 11 attacks.
