Compared with the tracking studies of audience interest for "300" conducted a week before it opened, the "Watchmen" numbers are highly similar, but with differences.
"Watchmen" is showing similar "awareness" -- a measure of how many filmgoers know a film is coming out -- as did "300" a week before it opened. And "definite interest," a stronger measure, is nearly identical. Both films are R-rated.
But men under 25 were less aware and less interested in attending "Watchmen" than men over 25. At the same time, women of all ages were significantly less interested in "Watchmen" than men.
The gap between older and younger moviegoers may be due more to marketing than the movie itself.
Executives at rival studios also say the film's marketing materials have failed to make "Watchmen's" story line accessible, crafting a campaign that they say is narrowly aimed at the core fan base rather than a broader segment of the market.
Warner Bros. declined to comment.
Taken together, the data suggest that the film's opening weekend grosses could trail "300's" opening mark, with "Watchmen" perhaps debuting with sales of about $60 million, executives at rival studios estimated. And if the 2-hour, 43-minute film is going to benefit from word of mouth, "Watchmen" will need to generate better moviegoer recommendations than it has been getting from trade newspaper reviewers and magazine critics.
Other executives are more bullish on the film's prospects, with one predicting it will surpass "300's" opening weekend. "Watchmen," in this view, is an ambitious, effects-filled spectacle, a summer movie in the middle of spring.
Imax, which will begin showing "Watchmen" at midnight screenings Thursday (many of which already are sold out), with subsequent screenings in its large-format theaters early Friday at 3 a.m., says the interest in Snyder's new film is palpable.
"Our advance ticket sales for 'Watchmen' are crushing what they were on '300,' " said Greg Foster, chairman and president of Imax Filmed Entertainment. Playing in 62 domestic Imax theaters, "300" grossed $20 million two years ago, while "Watchmen" will open in 124 Imax screens, Foster says.
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john.horn@latimes.com
