Bruins' season has gone to seedings

A few of the UCLA players, the seniors, remember what it feels like.

Heading into the NCAA tournament as something less than a highly seeded team. Wondering how far they might travel for their first-round game and what kind of draw they might get.

As for the rest of the team, this is unknown territory.

A program that has entered the last three tournaments seeded first or second -- and reached the Final Four each time -- is looking at a bumpier road this season in the wake of a string of costly defeats.

"We know we messed up," swingman Josh Shipp said, adding: "It's out of our control now."

Well, not exactly. Over the next two weeks -- starting with tonight's game against Oregon State at Pauley Pavilion -- 20th-ranked UCLA has a shot at jumping a few spots on the March Madness food chain.

Jerry Palm, a columnist for CBSSports.com who has spent most of his adult life pondering such matters, currently projects UCLA at No. 6 in the East Region, opening against 11th-seeded Florida in Miami, though the projections could change at any moment.

"It's a team that I've felt pretty much all year has been overrated compared to their accomplishments," Palm said of the Bruins.

So how can they better their position?

Start with some bracket defense. UCLA cannot afford to lose to either of the Oregon schools -- the Beavers and Ducks inhabit the lower half of the Pacific 10 Conference standings -- at home this week.

"Those are high-risk, no-reward games," Palm said.

And forget about the conference title. The Bruins can tie Washington for the regular-season championship with two wins and a Huskies loss to Washington State, but that piece of hardware probably won't sway the NCAA selection committee.

The real opportunity to impress comes next week during the Pac-10 tournament at Staples Center. Even in a down year for the conference, UCLA could parlay victories over No. 16 Washington and/or No. 21 Arizona State into a third or fourth seeding.

And that could make a difference.

Consider the historical data. Fifth-seeded teams lose their first-round games against 12th-seeded teams about 32% of the time, even more often in recent seasons.

Jump up one spot -- No. 4 vs. No. 13 -- and the upset factor drops to about 20%.

Third-seeded teams are even safer, losing only 17% of the time. As Palm explained: "You want to be a four or better."

The math doesn't fully convince UCLA guard Darren Collison.