SACRAMENTO — The last time California voters faced a slate of ballot measures crying for "reform," there was a pitched political battle featuring TV ads aplenty and campaigns awash in cash. There were unified labor unions and Democrats pitted against the Hollywood-style marketing of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
That was November 2005. What a difference 42 months make.
Just weeks from the May 19 special election on six proposals intended to solve the state's budget crisis, a fraction of the money is in play, unions are divided, Democrats are aligned with Schwarzenegger, and the governor -- his approval rating in the dumps -- has avoided the campaign spotlight.
Only the mood of the electorate remains the same. Voters drubbed the Schwarzenegger ballot measures in 2005, and polls suggest they'll do the same this time around.
"The good news is the California Teachers Assn. is on the governor's side this time," said Rob Stutzman, a GOP strategist, referring to the defeat the union dealt Schwarzenegger in 2005. "The bad news is the voters smell a rotten deal."
Some analysts say the election might already be largely decided. Strategists expect a low turnout and say most participants could be "permanent absentee" voters who may have already cast their ballots by mail. Election officials say one in three California voters is registered permanently as absentee, prompting speculation by strategists that up to 70% of ballots will be cast by mail.
Instead of blanketing the state with TV ads, the campaigns have targeted those voters specifically by hitting early and hard with mailers.
"This election will be over well before election day," said Arnold Steinberg, a Republican strategist.
A recent Field Poll showed that four of the measures -- hashed out by Schwarzenegger and lawmakers during the budget deal in February to help close a $42-billion deficit -- are favored by just 40% of likely voters. A fifth measure, Proposition 1C, which would allow the state to borrow $5 billion from a revamped California lottery to help balance the budget, is worse off: Voters oppose it nearly 2 to 1.
The only proposal that appears headed to victory is Proposition 1F, which takes direct aim at statewide officers and legislators by proposing a freeze on their salaries in deficit years.
"The big difference from 2005 is we've had four more years of Gov. Schwarzenegger and four years of less-than-stellar performance by the Legislature," said Jack Pitney, a Claremont McKenna College political scientist.
