Tighter credit, depleted retirement savings and environmental concerns are among the forces reshaping the U.S. auto market into something that looks more like Europe and the rest of the world -- where people buy smaller, more efficient cars and hold on to them longer.
Although every automaker is feeling the pressure, Chrysler, which filed for bankruptcy protection Thursday, and General Motors, which is on the road to taxpayer ownership, have been sideswiped hardest by careening change.
No one is expecting Americans to turn into a nation of fuel-sipping frugal pragmatists. But most analysts see little chance that the market will bounce back to its recent heights.
"Our entire business plan is constructed around the idea of being a profitable enterprise at a lower industry sales volume and a change in the mix of what's sold," said George Pipas, Ford's sales analyst.
For many, buying a new car also has been a fashion statement. How else can you explain "why a single person with a dog tools around in a giant SUV?" asked Wesley Brown, a consultant with Iceology, a Los Angeles consumer research and consulting firm.
But the rate of emotional car purchases is slowing.
During a remarkable eight-year period starting in 1999, the nation devoured an average of 16.9 million new vehicles a year, a rate of nearly 5.9 autos for every 100 people, according to Edmunds.com, the auto industry information service.
Analyst Jesse Toprak of Edmunds.com estimates that U.S. new vehicle sales will struggle to reach the 10-million range this year -- a rate of just 3.5 per 100 people, and the lowest since 1963, the earliest year for which Edmunds.com has data.
Pent-up demand and improved consumer confidence as the economy recovers may slowly pull sales back to that 16.9-million mark by 2014, he said.
But many in the industry see annual sales leveling off at 14 million to 15 million.
Even if the industry could again hit nearly 17 million new-vehicle sales annually, that doesn't look nearly as impressive after factoring in population growth. It represents a sales rate of barely 5.2 sales per 100 people. That is below the average rate of 5.7 for the 46 years from 1963 through 2008, Edmunds.com data show.
"You are starting to see signs that the U.S. market is more rational. Fuel prices combined with greater concern over the environment will play a larger role in the consumer psyche," said John Mendel, executive vice president of automotive sales for American Honda Motor Co. in Torrance.
