Bottom line: No doubt the recession will color the immigration debate to some degree -- but perhaps less than many expect.
The political landscape has also changed. The most obvious and dramatic shift is the new political power of Latinos. According to one estimate, nearly 11 million Latinos voted in 2008, compared with 7.6 million in 2004. They turned at least four states from red to blue.
And there's no mistaking the new mood: Many Latino voters have come to see immigration as a litmus test. Though not necessarily their first priority, it has become a threshold indicator for judging politicians: "Does he or she like people who look like us, or not?" Democrats have gotten this message loud and clear, and many are embracing immigration reform as a potential wedge issue.
But this attitude could hurt reform as much as it helps. Some Democrats will be afraid to get out ahead of anti-immigrant voters. And those seeking to use immigration for partisan advantage may prefer a long, polarized standoff to a compromise solution. A partisan Democratic push could also harden attitudes among Republicans, and entrenched partisanship on both sides could delay reform for years to come.
New arguments within the immigration reform movement will also complicate the debate this time around. It's a bigger tent than it used to be -- a stronger army fighting for an overhaul. But this also makes it harder for all the troops to agree on what's needed in a bill.
Advocates on the left now include not just Latino voters and unions (divided in 2006 and 2007, and often an obstacle to reform), but also a growing portion of Obama's progressive base. Meanwhile, on the center-right, employers who hire immigrants are engaging, finding the courage to speak up about how they need foreign workers.
The problem: Left and right not only frame their arguments differently, they also disagree on matters of substance. Most significantly, unions question whether the country needs reform that creates more visas for immigrant workers to enter the country in the future, while employers who hire foreigners say they can't sustain their businesses without them.
The question for the months ahead: Will these differences undo the reform movement, or will left and right find ways to compromise, broadening their base and expanding their power?
