"If you're from one of the groups on the outs with the power structure, and one of your own is running, it takes a lot of work for you to say, 'OK, I'm not going to vote for the first qualified Latino, I'm not going to vote for the second one,' but instead move over to the next ethnicity."
Yet Chu, a former mayor of Monterey Park, built a multiethnic coalition that propelled her to the state Assembly in 2001, and analysts see her as well positioned to do so again, if not easily.
Like many other Asian candidates in California, Chu has had no choice but to forge ethnic coalitions. No legislative or congressional district in the state is majority Asian.
"The vast majority of successful Asian American politicians have been good crossover candidates," said Stewart Kwoh, executive director of the Asian Pacific American Legal Center, a civil rights group.
In Chu's case, she would need perhaps a third of Latinos to join Asians and whites in voting for her. With voter turnout likely to be dismal, Chu's biggest edge is the support of organized labor, a potent force, and a strongly Latino one, in an area heavily populated by union members.
To broaden her reach, Chu is touting support from some of California's best known Latinos, including Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and United Farm Workers co-founder Dolores Huerta.
After representing the area for more than a decade, Chu has deeper roots there than Cedillo, who said he moved from downtown L.A. to Monterey Park about three months ago. The state Senate and congressional districts do not overlap, but Cedillo detailed his long family history in the area.
Given her support base and district ties, Chu "meets the criteria for when crossover politics is likely to happen," said Raphael Sonenshein, a political science professor at Cal State Fullerton.
Cedillo has built his legislative career in no small part on ethnic appeals. His signature issue has been the fight to grant driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. "He has 30 years of public service, fighting for immigrant and working families," a recent Cedillo mailer told voters in English and Spanish.
A former assemblyman and leader of a Service Employees International Union local, Cedillo brushed off labor's support of Chu. "I've always enjoyed the support of the rank and file," he said in an interview last month.
Cedillo has endorsements from prominent Latinos, including L.A. County Sheriff Lee Baca and county Supervisor Gloria Molina.
Historically, Molina said, there has been "a tremendous interest in making sure that we have representation that's proportional to the people in California who are Latino." At the same time, she stressed the importance of coalition politics, saying it was tough to side with Cedillo over Chu, "because she's been there for us on so many things."
With similar legislative records, the ethnicity of Chu and Cedillo will inevitably stand as a key distinction in the special election. The question is how much weight it will carry.
"Ethnicity is a factor," said Harry Pachon, president of the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute at USC. "But it's not the only factor."
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michael.finnegan@latimes.com
