By seizing gubernatorial seats in Virginia and New Jersey, Republicans on Tuesday dispelled any notion of President Obama's electoral invincibility, giving the GOP a lift and offering warning signs to Democrats ahead of the 2010 midterm elections.
Republican leaders were quick to cast Tuesday's outcome as a rebuke of Obama, nearly a year after his election.
"It sends a clear signal that voters have had enough of the president's liberal agenda," Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele said after Robert F. McDonnell emerged as the winner in Virginia.
Still, Democrats could take some solace in Tuesday's results, as the party swiped a traditionally Republican House seat in the far north of New York. The contest drew wide notice as moderates and nationally prominent conservatives waged a fierce battle over the future of the Republican Party. With 92% of the precincts reporting, Democrat Bill Owens had 49% to Conservative Doug Hoffman's 45%.
In Virginia, McDonnell took 59% to Democrat R. Creigh Deeds' 41%, in nearly final returns. In New Jersey, Republican Christopher Christie took 49% to Jon Corzine's 45%.
In the San Francisco Bay Area, Democrats easily held onto an open congressional seat when Lt. Gov. John Garamendi defeated Republican David Harmer. With 72% of the precincts reporting, Garamendi led, 53% to 42%.
History suggests that off-year elections are far from predictive. In 2001 -- at a like point in Republican George W. Bush's presidency -- Democrats won the governorships in New Jersey and Virginia, then lost House and Senate seats a year later.
But even before a single vote was cast Tuesday, Democrats had cause for concern.
With Obama slipping in polls and many voters unhappy with the Democratic-run Congress, "it's been increasingly clear over the last few months that Democrats were likely to have a tough midterm next year," said Charlie Cook, who handicaps races nationwide for his nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "What we've seen tonight doesn't dispute that assumption."
Tuesday's gubernatorial results certainly won't help Democrats. Perceptions are important in politics -- often more so than reality -- and the GOP's success, including a sweep of all three statewide offices in Virginia, should boost the party's fundraising and candidate recruitment in the coming weeks.
