WASHINGTON AND MADISON, WIS. — Even before voters went to the polls this week, moderate congressional Democrats were anxious. Would the swing voters who coalesced around Barack Obama almost exactly one year ago stay with the Democrats or defect to the Republicans?
The answer came Tuesday night as Republican gubernatorial candidates swept to power in New Jersey and Virginia, with the help of large packs of self-described independents.
Exit polls circulating on the House floor Wednesday were even more unnerving to Democrats. The Republican candidates, the polls indicated, had received the votes of two-thirds of independent voters.
Now, as the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate prepare for next year's midterm elections, some moderate Democrats are wondering whether they can afford to follow President Obama's ambitious legislative agenda on such controversial issues as healthcare and climate change. One said the results were a "wake-up call."
"There are going to be a lot more tensions between the White House and Congress," predicted Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.), a member of the Blue Dog Coalition of fiscally conservative Democrats. "They've been under the surface so far -- and they're going to come out in the open."
The president's agenda already has been bogged down by an extended and draining battle over healthcare, one that could stretch into the new year.
After that bruising fight, bitter conflicts loom over climate change, financial market reform and immigration. That sets up a potential conflict between the White House and some Democrats who want to avoid controversial votes that can -- and almost certainly will -- be used against them by their opponents in next year's campaigns.
Ironically, those same exit polls indicate that Obama remains relatively popular with voters, even among those who chose Republican candidates Tuesday.
But "lesser mortals need to be worried about their independent voters," Cooper said, "because they have shifted strongly against Democrats in recent months. Independent voters tend to look at the issue, not the party, and they don't like a lot of what Congress has done."
Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, said that Democrats such as Cooper had reason to be nervous.
"Republicans won independents by 2 to 1. It was overwhelming. It was breathtaking," Ayres said. "That is a huge shift since the last two elections in a very short amount of time."
