China, the U.S. and Taiwan

President Obama will have a lot on his agenda when he visits China this week as part of his four-nation Asia trip. He wants to strengthen ties with Beijing in an effort to resolve the global financial crisis, foster collaboration on climate change and curb nuclear proliferation in North Korea. China's cooperation is also essential on a wide range of other pressing problems, including terrorism, threats to public health and dwindling energy supplies. Most analysts agree, however, that Beijing's chief concern is the United States' continued military support of Taiwan.

American arms sales to Taiwan hold the potential to jeopardize Sino-American relations. But there is a way for Washington to use military arms to turn this situation into a win-win-win scenario for the U.S., China and Taiwan.

Relations between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan have improved enormously in the last year. The two sides have hammered out agreements easing travel and trade restrictions, promoting tourism and providing for improved postal services and food safety. Beijing has agreed to Taipei's participation as an observer in the World Health Assembly -- the steering body of the World Health Organization -- as "Chinese Taipei," while Taipei has junked the quixotic campaign to rejoin the United Nations. A free-trade pact is on the horizon, and both sides are talking about a peace agreement.

Despite these positive trends, U.S. military support for Taiwan remains the most sensitive and volatile issue in Sino-American relations. During the 2008 U.S. presidential campaign, Obama endorsed the Bush administration's decision to sell $6.5 billion in arms to Taiwan. But Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain called for a more robust weapons package -- a position embraced by arms merchants and many of Taipei's friends in Washington. And they are now calling on the U.S. to sell 66 upgraded F-16 warplanes to Taiwan for up to $4.9 billion. The Obama administration has yet to decide whether it will approve the contentious sale.

The problem is that Beijing would consider any sale of advanced fighters to Taipei as extremely provocative, and it is probable that such a deal would lead to an escalation in tensions with Taiwan. And U.S. military officials have warned that the sale could also severely strain Sino-American relations at a time when Washington requires Beijing's support to cope with a host of international challenges.