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Nfl : Farmer's Picks :: Week 10

November 13, 2009|Sam Farmer

Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines this week's matchups. Lines according to Glantz-Culver. Last week 8-5, 86-43 overall (.667); against spread 5-8, overall 58-71 (.449). See Farmer's video picks online at our Fabulous Forum blog at www.latimes.com/sports:

Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets

Records: 4-4; 4-4.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 704.

Line: Jets by 7. Over/Under: 40.5.

The Jaguars are a bad road team, and are awfully one-dimensional on offense. If the Jets can contain Maurice Jones-Drew, they should be able to protect their home turf. Jets 31, Jaguars 24.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Records: 6-2; 6-2.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Steelers by 7. Over/Under: 41.5.

When they met earlier, the Bengals didn't have to worry so much about Rashard Mendenhall. Now, the Pittsburgh back is averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Pittsburgh 30, Bengals 20.

Buffalo at Tennessee

Records: 3-5; 2-6.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Titans by 6.5. Over/Under: 41.

Vince Young has been surprisingly good at game management. Tennessee is vulnerable in the secondary, but it remains to be seen if Buffalo has the passing game to exploit that. Titans 24, Bills 12.

Denver at Washington

Records: 6-2; 2-6.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Broncos by 3.5. Over/Under: 37.

Denver's defensive line should be able to wreak havoc in the Redskins backfield, where Jason Campbell has been sacked 25 times (including six by Atlanta last Sunday). Broncos 21, Redskins 10.

Atlanta at Carolina

Records: 5-3; 3-5.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Falcons by 1.5. Over/Under: 43.5.

After a painfully slow start, Atlanta's Michael Turner has been exceptional lately. In the last two games, he has 323 yards rushing at three touchdowns. He should set the pace. Falcons 21, Panthers 16.

Tampa Bay at Miami

Records: 1-7; 3-5.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Dolphins by 10. Over/Under: 43.5.

The Dolphins have had a tough time getting their wildcat offense on track. Tampa Bay should help them do that, giving up 163.4 yards rushing a game. Dolphins 27, Buccaneers 14.

Detroit at Minnesota

Records: 1-7; 7-1.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Vikings by 17. Over/Under: 47.

Matthew Stafford had five interceptions last week, and 12 in six starts. Nothing says pressure like Jared Allen coming off the edge. The Vikings won't let this one slip away. Vikings 35, Lions 13.

New Orleans at St. Louis

Records: 8-0; 1-7.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Saints by 13.5. Over/Under: 50.

Although the Saints trailed in the first quarter in their last three games, they have far too much firepower for St. Louis. As long as they don't fall asleep at the wheel . . . Saints 35, Rams 14.

Kansas City at Oakland

Records: 1-7; 2-6.

When: Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Raiders by 1.5. Over/Under: 36.5.

The Raiders won at Kansas City earlier for their first win. The Chiefs, the only team with zero rushing touchdowns, might score one; Raiders have allowed an NFL-high 13. Raiders 14, Chiefs 9.

Seattle at Arizona

Records: 3-5; 5-3.

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Cardinals by 8.5. Over/Under: 47.

The Cardinals have come to life in recent weeks, winning four of five, and have beaten Seattle handily in their last three meetings. The Seahawks are just too banged up. Cardinals 30, Seahawks 16.

Dallas at Green Bay

Records: 6-2; 4-4.

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Cowboys by 3. Over/Under: 47.5.

The Cowboys have won four in a row. The Packers have dropped two straight and are still having problems protecting Aaron Rodgers. Dallas should take advantage. Cowboys 30, Packers 14.

Philadelphia at San Diego

Records: 5-3; 5-3.

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Chargers by 1.5. Over/Under: 47.

The Chargers are gaining confidence and facing a team with serious problems at cornerback. And when you're facing Philip Rivers, cornerback problems are a very bad thing. Chargers 30, Eagles 14.

New England at Indianapolis

Records: 6-2; 8-0.

When: Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Colts by 3. Over/Under: 49.5.

If the Colts have a vulnerability, it's their rookie corners. With a healthy Wes Welker in the slot and Randy Moss to stretch the field, Tom Brady should take advantage. Patriots 17, Colts 14.

Baltimore at Cleveland

Records: 4-4; 1-7.

When: Monday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN.

Line: Ravens by 10.5. Over/Under: 40.5.

This is a trap game for the Ravens, who by all rights should dominate. The Browns have a hard enough time moving the chains against lesser defenses. Ravens 28, Browns 6.

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