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Prediction: Cardinals in three games

October 07, 2009|Kevin Baxter

OFFENSE

Although the Dodgers batted a league-best .270 during the regular season, they faltered down the stretch, scoring one run or none four times in their final nine games and hitting just .257 over the last month. During than span five regulars hit below .235 -- Matt Kemp (.228), Andre Ethier (.211), Russell Martin (.213), Manny Ramirez (.234) and Orlando Hudson (.220). Still, Ramirez is baseball's most prolific postseason power hitter with 28 home runs in the playoffs and World Series. His 12 homers in division series games are also a record. The Cardinals' offense revolves around Albert Pujols, who almost certainly will win his third league MVP award after a season in which he led the majors in six categories, including homers (47) and runs (124). The midseason trade that brought Matt Holliday to St. Louis has given Pujols some protection. Holliday is batting .353 and slugging .604 in his 63 games. Plus Holliday rakes against the Dodgers, hitting .343 with 18 homers, 63 runs batted in and 72 runs in 84 games.


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Edge: Cardinals.

DEFENSE

The Cardinals have a pair of Gold Glove winners in Yadier Molina, who had the fewest errors and best fielding percentage of any NL catcher, and Pujols, who displayed the best range of any NL first baseman on his way to a single-season-record 185 assists. Molina can also shut down the running game, having thrown out 41% of would-be base stealers. But St. Louis is pretty average everywhere else, while the Dodgers are solid at every position but left field. Second baseman Hudson is a former Gold Glove winner and Kemp, who led big league center fielders with 14 assists, soon could be. But while the Dodgers committed 13 fewer errors than the Cardinals, St. Louis' staff of ground-ball pitchers helped them turn 33 more double plays.

Edge: Dodgers.

STARTING PITCHING

Although the Dodgers had the lowest staff earned-run average in the majors at 3.41, the Cardinals have the best one-two punch in baseball in right-handers Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Carpenter led the league in ERA (2.24) while finishing second in wins with 17, while Wainwright led the league with 19 wins and 233 innings and was fourth in ERA (2.63) and strikeouts (212). And their third starter is no slouch either. Joel Pineiro had a career year, going 15-12 with a 3.49 ERA and a league-best two shutouts. The Dodgers' rotation, meanwhile, has disintegrated. Hiroki Kuroda, last year's playoff ace, is out of the division series because of a bulging disk in his neck while Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley all missed at least one September start. Wolf, the Game 1 starter, has lost once since Aug. 1, but Billingsley has won only once since Aug. 18 and Kershaw's only win of the second half came in mid-July.

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