Politicians love photo-ops. So when Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) appeared alongside Hamid Karzai as the beleaguered Afghan president announced that he would agree to a runoff election, it was hardly surprising. Kerry was doing what politicians do.
Moreover, the senator was in Kabul to supplement the Obama administration's efforts to lean on Karzai to hold another presidential vote, given widespread evidence that the one held in August was rigged. When Karzai claimed victory then, his main opponent, former Afghan Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, cried foul, a chorus of international criticism arose and an Afghan government infamous for its ineptitude and sleaziness looked even more illegitimate.
It's this tricky context that makes Kerry's photo-op problematic.
The Obama administration knows that no amount of firepower in the war will substitute for an Afghan government that is minimally effective, has the confidence of its people and is seen as independent. The Taliban knows this as well, which is why, in addition to mounting an insurgency and launching suicide bombings, it has been busy painting the Americans as occupiers and Karzai as their puppet. The spectacle of the 6-foot-tall U.S. senator standing next to the Afghan president, who everyone knows was arm-twisted into making a concession he had resisted, simply helps the Taliban's PR campaign.
It's hard to imagine that Kerry was freelancing and was not in touch with the White House or the State Department while he was cajoling Karzai. So one wonders whether the administration considered the implications of having Kerry looming over the diminutive Afghan president. What's certain is that it will present Karzai's announcement as a diplomatic success. But in fact, Karzai's concession introduces more problems.
The runoff is to be held on Nov. 7 -- that's less than three weeks from now. Organizing it that quickly would be hard even for an honest and efficient government. But the Afghan government is an amalgam of consummate crookedness and incompetence. The first attribute means that the same dishonest impulses that led it to cheat in the August election will tempt it to steal the vote in the runoff -- and to parry the ensuing criticism by arguing that Karzai went the extra mile by agreeing to a second round in a vote that he had rightfully won in the first.
