After years in Sacramento, California's lieutenant governor is heavily favored to win a special election Tuesday for a House seat.

SACRAMENTO — For years he had been the state Capitol's perennial governor wannabe, the Democrat with the big handshake and reliable ambition and decades of political seasoning.

But now Lt. Gov. John Garamendi appears poised to leave Sacramento.

Garamendi, at 64 a man who has spent more than half his life in politics, is heavily favored to win a Bay Area congressional seat in a special election Tuesday. If the votes fall as expected in a district where Democrats have an 18-point registration edge over Republicans, Garamendi will relinquish his post as the state's second-in-command, a job with a big title but few real-world responsibilities.

His departure could set up yet another showdown between Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who would nominate a new lieutenant governor, and a Democrat-dominated Legislature that is unlikely to confirm anyone with ambition to run statewide next year.

For Garamendi, these are times to reminisce and get ready for a possible trip to Washington, where he could potentially cast a vote next week in the roiling healthcare debate.

"I have had an absolutely marvelous life . . . no regrets at all," he said in his office across from the governor's suite. "And maybe in four or five days, I'll be starting a new career."

For players in California's Capitol, it is time to do some political calculus, as Democratic leaders prepare for a possible joust with Schwarzenegger over a successor.

Aaron McLear, the governor's spokesman, said Schwarzenegger is not focusing on a potential replacement until there is a vacancy.

But names being bandied about in the statehouse include Democrat Bob Hertzberg, a former Assembly speaker now shepherding the good-government group California Forward. Republicans being mentioned include former Los Angeles Mayor and state Education Secretary Richard Riordan, state Sen. Abel Maldonado of Santa Maria -- who broke from GOP ranks this year to push budget deals to Schwarzenegger's desk -- and current gubernatorial candidate Tom Campbell.

Some pundits speculate that Schwarzenegger will at least make a bow to his party by nominating a Republican, even though legislative Democrats would probably block it, then settle for a choice such as Hertzberg, a Schwarzenegger friend.

Dan Schnur, executive director of USC's Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics, said the "only safe bet" is that a Garamendi successor would be someone seen as having "a fairly limited political future."