Jay Leno knows how to cope with pressure. Which is good, because this week he'll face a public test the likes of which few media personalities have to endure.
When "The Jay Leno Show" premieres tonight in its 10 p.m. weeknight slot, a fair number of industry insiders -- and not just rival executives -- will be rooting for it to flop. That's mostly because, as part of NBC's controversial experiment to overturn 60 years of prime-time TV traditions with relatively cheap programming, Leno's new show is perceived as a potential job-wrecker. It's Exhibit A for the worried writers, directors and crew members, already buffeted by the recession and labor unrest, who now watch with alarm as executives begin to trim back on expensive scripted shows that have kept thousands employed for years.
As for those rival networks, they are vowing to crush Leno. But Hollywood executives and agents around town are also watching NBC's gambit with more than the typical competitive interest, as the industry continues to flail about in search of a viable new business model. Even a modest audience could deliver a huge payoff for fourth-ranked NBC, because the Leno show's expenses will amount to roughly one-third of the $300 million or so each network now spends each year to air originals and repeats of top scripted dramas during the 10 p.m. hour.
Now 59 and seemingly reinvigorated by his new challenge, the ever-amiable Leno, despite endless joking, seems to sense that the stakes could not be higher. "Television is dying," Leno told reporters during a conference call last week. "The advertising dollars are not there anymore" to support many high-cost scripted shows. While he said he remains "hopefully optimistic" about his odds, the host admits that the business is changing so rapidly, with audiences scattering in all directions, "I don't know what TV is anymore."
Leno has faced long odds before. In 1992, in a generational handoff that earned headlines around the world, the longtime stand-up comic took the reins of "Tonight" from the legendary Johnny Carson. Leno's early months were disastrous. He found himself struggling badly against David Letterman, who started a rival show at CBS. But within several years Leno emerged as the No. 1 host in late night and a perennial audience favorite.
