The dust has barely settled on the 2009 movie year, but it's never too early to look ahead to the promise and peril of 2010, especially its summer box-office showdowns.
About 40% of all movie tickets are sold between Memorial Day and Labor Day, and as the studios try to squeeze more dollars from the vacation season, they not only are expanding the parameters of what defines the summer (Marvel and Paramount's " Iron Man 2" opens on May 7) but also inevitably packing numerous movies into some key weekends like so many cars on the 405 Freeway.
As is often the case, some of the year's most-anticipated movies -- DreamWorks' "Shrek Forever After" on May 21, for example -- will open alone, with the competition steering clear. It's the same wide berth given last summer to Paramount's "Star Trek," Sony's "Angels & Demons" and Warner Bros.' "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince," all of which premiered with no new national releases against them.
But even with studios staking out release dates well beyond our imagining -- DreamWorks already has claimed May 25, 2012, for "Madagascar 3" and penciled in "Shrek 5" for 2013 -- it's inevitable there will be any number of bloody clashes. This past summer, Sony's "Year One" dared to premiere directly opposite Disney's "The Proposal," and we know how well that turned out for Jack Black.
Based on what agents, studio executives and filmmakers have been saying, here's a look at some of this summer's face-offs, with a handicapping of the races.
May 28
Disney's "The Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time" versus Warner Bros.' " Sex and the City 2."
Horn: We all know how badly some recent video game adaptations have fared (remember "Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li"?), but Jerry Bruckheimer's "Prince of Persia" feels like both a hit in its own right and the potential launch of a new franchise. The first "Sex and the City" grossed more than $150 million, but I'm taking sandstorms over shoes.
Fritz: No question "Persia" will open bigger thanks to a well-known brand among gamers, a hunky star ( Jake Gyllenhaal) and what look like phenomenal special effects. But Hollywood has a consistent track record of screwing up video game adaptations, while films aimed at older women such as "It's Complicated" can play well for a very long time. So I'll bet "Sex and the City" will win out in the long run, at least in the U.S. (as evidenced by "2012," effects-laden tentpoles are often huge overseas regardless of what we Americans think).
June 11
Fox's "The A-Team" versus Sony's "The Karate Kid."
Horn: Tough call. Family movies almost always over-perform in the summer: Look at Fox's "Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs," which grossed nearly $900 million worldwide. Is Will Smith's son Jaden the next Ralph Macchio, and Jackie Chan today's Pat Morita? In a coin toss, the money's on the remake of the movie, not the remake of the TV show.
Fritz: For those who recall when John had to make a tough call for a June weekend last year, he picked "Land of the Lost" over " The Hangover." That alone would be reason to disagree. But if Fox's plan for "The A-Team" comes together as well as the '80s TV show did, it could be a potent mix of action and comedy driven by rising stars like Bradley Cooper, Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and " District 9's" Sharlto Copley. Nostalgia alone, meanwhile, may not be enough to carry "The Karate Kid." Just ask the makers of "Fame."
June 18
Disney and Pixar's "Toy Story 3" versus Paramount's "Footloose."
Horn: Underestimate Pixar at your own peril. "Toy Story 2" ($245.9 million domestically) outgrossed the first "Toy Story" ($191.8 million) and there's no reason why the third Buzz and Woody film won't do better than both.
Fritz: Gee, that's almost as tough a call as "Avatar" versus "Did You Hear About the Morgans?" the weekend before Christmas. Given the track record of Pixar and this franchise in particular, I'd bet "Toy Story 3" won't only beat its weekend competition but will be the biggest movie of the summer.
July 2
Fox's "Knight and Day" versus Paramount's "The Last Airbender" versus Summit's "The Twilight Saga: Eclipse."
Fritz: Unless an unexpected virus wipes out the global population of teenage girls, there's no contest. The only question is whether "Eclipse" will beat "Knight and Day" and "Airbender" combined.
Horn: It's foolish to bet against Hollywood's hottest franchise (the first two "Twilight" movies have combined to gross more than $1 billion worldwide), and I'm no fool. But expect Tom Cruise and Cameron Diaz's "Knight and Day" and M. Night Shyamalan's "Airbender" to do better than many people might expect.
July 16
Disney's "The Sorcerer's Apprentice" versus
Warner Bros.' "Inception."
