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Sam Farmer's Week 4 NFL picks

The Times' NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week's matchups.

September 30, 2010

Lines according to Glantz-Culver (O/U = over/under). Last week's record: 7-9 (.438); season 27-21 (.563). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the handicapped record would have been 7-9 (.438); season 20-28 (.417).

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo

Records: 2-1; 0-3

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 704

Line: Jets by 5. O/U: 36

The Bills put up a surprisingly good fight against the Patriots last week, but they don't match up well against this Jets defense. Jets 17, Bills 9

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Records: 2-1; 0-3

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 705

Line: Bengals by 3. O/U: 37

The Bengals have won the last three meetings, though this time the Browns finally break out of their downward spiral — for a week. Browns 14, Bengals 13

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Records: 2-1; 3-0

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 706

Line: Steelers by 1. O/U: 34

These are two of the best defenses in the league, which — in this bizarro season — probably means there will be a lot of scoring. Steelers 24, Ravens 21

Denver at Tennessee

Records: 1-2; 2-1

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 707

Line: Titans by 6. O/U: 42

The Titans are still looking to get their passing game going. When they do, that will create even more opportunities for Chris Johnson. Titans 20, Broncos 16

Detroit at Green Bay

Records: 0-3; 2-1

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 708

Line: Packers by 14. O/U: 45

The Packers have to come out a lot sharper than they did in their penalty-filled loss to the Bears. The Lions will keep things interesting. Packers 28, Lions 21

San Francisco at Atlanta

Records: 0-3; 2-1

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 709

Line: Falcons by 7. O/U: 42

The 49ers are reeling, and firing their offensive coordinator is only the first shoe to drop. Atlanta has to watch for an emotional letdown. Falcons 30, 49ers 24

Carolina at New Orleans

Records: 0-3; 2-1

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 710

Line: Saints by 13. O/U: 44

The Panthers would like to control the clock by running the ball, but the Saints can turn this into a shootout in short order. Saints 31, Panthers 17

Seattle at St. Louis

Records: 2-1; 1-2

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 711

Line: Seahawks by 1. O/U: 39

Even though the Seahawks have won their last five games in St. Louis, four of those matchups were tight games. The Rams are rising. Rams 21, Seahawks 20

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Records: 2-1; 1-2

When: Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 712

Line: Colts by 7. O/U: 46

Establishing the run will be difficult against a stout Jacksonville front. Peyton Manning should be able to pick apart that secondary, though. Colts 27, Jaguars 16

Houston at Oakland

Records: 2-1; 1-2

When: Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 713

Line: Texans by 3. O/U: 43

The Texans have given up 24, 27 and 27 points, and their defense has some holes. Matt Schaub gets the nod over Bruce Gradkowski in a shootout, however. Texans 27, Raiders 24

Washington at Philadelphia

Records: 1-2; 2-1

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 714

Line: Eagles by 6. O/U: 43

If the Redskins couldn't stop those St. Louis receivers, they're not going to be able to corral DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek. Eagles 31, Redskins 20

Arizona at San Diego

Records: 2-1; 1-2

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 715

Line: Chargers by 8. O/U: 46

As long as they can patch the holes in their coverage units, the Chargers should win handily in a place where they have won five of six against Arizona. Chargers 28, Cardinals 17

Chicago at N.Y. Giants

Records: 3-0; 1-2

When: Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Giants by 4. O/U: 44

The Bears have won seven of eight the week after Monday night games. The Giants are really struggling, particularly running the ball. Bears 24, Giants 20

New England at Miami

Records: 2-1; 2-1

When: Monday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN

Line: Patriots by 1. O/U: 46

The Dolphins have a lot of creative ways to attack a defense, and the Patriots have shown a tendency for breakdowns on that side of the ball. Dolphins 21, Patriots 20

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