LAHORE, PAKISTAN — Inspired by the popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, Pakistani college student Gulraiz Iqbal is itching for a reason to take his disdain for President Asif Ali Zardari's government to the streets.
If Pakistani authorities grant diplomatic immunity and release Raymond Davis, the U.S. Embassy employee accused of murder in the deaths of two Pakistani men in Lahore, Iqbal will have the cause he craves.
"We would organize students in Lahore and across the country, and create a movement that would turn into a revolution," said Iqbal, 22, a small, wiry man who is a leader of the Lahore student wing of an opposition party, Movement for Justice. "We're inspired by the examples of Tunisia and Egypt because their leaders were agents for the U.S. We have the same situation here."
Iqbal's fist-shaking can't be brushed aside, if only because his outrage over the Davis case is shared by much of the rest of the country. In a nation fractured along ethnic, sectarian and political fault lines, the case has congealed Pakistani society into a single, cohesive front against what many perceive to be an ideal illustration of American recklessness.
On Jan. 27, Davis, 36, fatally shot two men who he said were trying to rob him at gunpoint. Davis was arrested and told officials he acted in self-defense. But few in Pakistan believe his version of events and many want him tried on murder charges, or worse.
Photos of protesters hoisting banners that read "Hang Raymond Davis!" appear every few days in Pakistani newspapers. Islamist parties capable of mobilizing thousands of demonstrators have vowed to rally against the government if Davis is freed.
The tumult sweeping through the Middle East could give demonstrators in Pakistan momentum that Zardari and his government would struggle to withstand, analysts say.
Zardari's government has reeled from one crisis to the next since the ouster of military ruler Pervez Musharraf in 2008. The Supreme Court has repeatedly sought Zardari's prosecution on corruption charges leveled in Switzerland. Many Pakistanis harshly criticized his administration for failing to provide relief quickly enough to millions left homeless by last summer's epic floods. The country's economy continues to teeter on the brink of collapse.
If Davis is released without a trial, experts say, it could be the last straw. The U.S. is expected to argue its case for Davis' immunity at a hearing Thursday at the Lahore High Court.
"The problem is that the government is so weak," says Talat Masood, a security analyst and retired Pakistani general. "The government thinks that because of what's happening in Egypt, the people need only an excuse, and this might be the one."
Washington wants Islamabad to declare that Davis is shielded from prosecution by immunity granted by the Vienna Convention to all diplomats and embassy "technical and administrative staff." U.S. officials have described Davis, a former U.S. Special Forces soldier, as an official with the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad, but they have declined to state what his job is.
Washington remains mindful of Pakistan's important role in an eventual resolution of the war in Afghanistan and in maintaining pressure on Al Qaeda and Taliban strongholds in the country's volatile northwest. Pakistan desperately needs the steady stream of financial aid that the U.S. provides, but it cannot afford to allow the Davis affair to become a trigger for national unrest.
"The question is, when both countries have so much to lose, which one will stand down?" said Zafar Hilaly, a former Pakistani ambassador to the U.S.
During a news conference Tuesday in Washington, President Obama called for Pakistan to respect diplomatic immunity for Davis. Arriving in Lahore late Tuesday, Sen. John F. Kerry said the U.S. deeply regretted the deaths of the two Pakistani men and promised a Justice Department investigation of Davis' actions.
"We cannot allow one incident to break apart a much stronger bond that deals with millions of people in Pakistan, for whom we want to try to help build energy projects, new jobs, decent homes, education and healthcare," Kerry told reporters in Lahore.
Punjab provincial police officials have called the shooting a "clear-cut case of murder." According to the police, Davis says he had stopped his car at a red light when two men pulled up on a motorcycle. When one of the men pulled out a pistol and aimed it at the American, he fired at them through the windshield in self-defense, Davis told police.
Witnesses say Davis then got out of his car and snapped photos of the men before driving away. He was pulled over by police minutes later and arrested.
