While coyly refusing to rule out contraction, Stern assessed the other 29 teams $7 million each to buy the New Orleans Hornets, knowing he can sell them for more after he gets a labor deal.
Until Stern says he's contracting the Hornets, I believe in the system, with tweaks -- the more so with the Lakers' new deal with Time Warner signaling exploding valuations for local TV rights.
Likelihood games will be lost: Bearing in mind I'm the biggest, or only, optimist in basketball labor today
If the NFL misses games, the NBA has a 100% chance of missing games.
If the NFL makes a deal and starts on time, the odds on the NBA missing games are 60%.
More important, if the NFL starts on time, I see the chances of the NBA burning a season dropping to 20%.
Why the NBA will prevail: It won't.
Why the players will prevail: They won't.
They will make a deal, leaving the owners better off, and the players still rich, if not as rich as the owners, but younger and more famous.