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Financial markets fear new threat to Eurozone

Soaring interest rates on Italian debt spark fresh doubts about the future of Europe's common currency.

November 10, 2011|By Tom Petruno and Walter Hamilton, Los Angeles Times
  • Floor official Rudi Maas, left, and trader Thomas Kay work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Floor official Rudi Maas, left, and trader Thomas Kay work on the floor of… (Richard Drew, Associated…)

After weeks of deepening drama over Europe's debt crisis, global financial markets now fear that the unthinkable may be inevitable: a partial breakup of the continent's 12-year-old currency union.

Stocks plummeted worldwide Wednesday as the 2-year-old debt debacle took a frightening turn, threatening to engulf Italy and deal a heavy blow to investors' faith in the Eurozone's future.

The virtual bankruptcy of Greece, the trigger for the severe bout of market volatility that began in early August, has become a sideshow to Italy's nightmare: Just as they'd done with Greece, investors are bailing out of Italian government debt, worried that they won't be repaid in full.

That has sent market interest rates on the country's bonds soaring in recent days. "It's a run on Italy," said Allen Sinai, head of Decision Economics Inc. in New York.

With $2.6 trillion in outstanding sovereign debt, Italy is the world's third-largest bond market, after the U.S. and Japan. The risk of Italy becoming insolvent dwarfs concerns about Greece, which has a debt load of about $500 billion.

Nervous investors sent stocks reeling across the globe. The Dow Jones industrial average dived 389.24 points, or 3.2%, to 11,780.94. It was the blue-chip index's biggest drop since Sept. 22.

The market's losses worsened after reports from Europe suggested that Germany and France were in active discussions about overhauling the European Union, which could lead to some of the union's weakest members giving up the euro currency.

Though some analysts have warned in recent months that a breakup was becoming unavoidable, investors' intensified focus on the idea sparked a wave of selling in markets because of the uncertainty it would provoke.

"You're getting to the point where you're hearing about separation, and if that happens you're in no man's land," said Wayne Lin, a market strategist for money manager Legg Mason in New York.

But any move to pare the list of the 17 nations that use the euro currency isn't likely to come soon, analysts say. The immediate threat is that financial-market confidence could continue to crumble unless European leaders provide some kind of debt backstop for Italy.

On Wednesday the market yield on 10-year Italian government bonds soared to 7.25%, the highest since 1997 and up from less than 6% just two weeks ago.

The jump in interest rates shows that "the providers of credit to Italy are getting cold feet," said Christopher Rupkey, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York.

The bailout that the European Union negotiated for Greece in late October asks private bondholders to in effect write off 50% of the debt's value. Rupkey believes that the deal had the unintended consequence of helping to destabilize Italy's debt market.

Italian bond investors "are afraid of what could happen to them," he said.

After embattled Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi agreed Tuesday to step down, Eurozone authorities had hoped that the prospect of a new government would boost confidence. It didn't work: Some investors continued to dump Italian bonds, driving interest rates higher.

Italy doesn't face an imminent risk of defaulting on its debt, analysts say. But if investors continue to push up market rates on the country's bonds the situation could get grim in 2012, when the government must refinance about $400 billion in maturing debt.

European leaders last month announced a plan to expand their $600-billion rescue fund for member states and banks, hoping to stop the continent's debt crisis from spreading.

The idea was to boost the firepower of the fund, known as the European Financial Stability Facility, to $1.4 trillion by leveraging it. The fund could then eventually guarantee bonds issued by deeply indebted countries, particularly Italy.

But the fund's expansion remains in limbo, in part because of the reluctance of China and other Asian nations to contribute to it.

That places the onus on the European Central Bank to rush to Italy's aid, many experts say.

The ECB has been buying Italian bonds in the open market, trying to push interest rates lower. But ECB officials, including new President Mario Draghi, have insisted that they won't embark on a massive new bond-buying program.

Although the ECB ramped up purchases of Eurozone government bonds last week, Draghi has said the bank's buying would be "temporary" and "limited in its amount."

But many on Wall Street believe the ECB now must commit to fully backstopping Italy to halt the rush out of the country's bonds.

"Why would anyone want to buy Italian debt now, without knowing where the support would come from?" said Decision Economics' Sinai.

If the market worsens it could wreak more havoc on European banks, whose substantial holdings of Italian debt are devalued as market interest rates surge.

The ECB, however, has made clear that it wants to see Italy and other European countries attack the root of their debt problems by committing to painful austerity programs.

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