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Sam Farmer's NFL Week 11 picks

The Times' pro football writer examines each matchup in the league.

November 17, 2011|By Sam Farmer
  • Quarterback Andy Dalton and the Bengals meet the Baltimore Raves in a key AFC North battle on Sunday.
Quarterback Andy Dalton and the Bengals meet the Baltimore Raves in a key… (Tony Tribble / Associated…)

The Times' NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week's matchups. Lines according to Glantz-Culver (O/U = over/under). Last week's record 9-7 (.563); season 95-51 (.651). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 8-5-3 (.615); season 64-72-10 (.471).

Oakland (5-4)

at Minnesota (2-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Raiders 24, Vikings 21

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 704.

Line: Raiders by 1. O/U: 45.

The Raiders are coming off a long week, and the Vikings a short one. Carson Palmer is increasingly familiar with the offense, and Michael Bush has picked up the running slack.

Cincinnati (6-3)

at Baltimore (6-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Ravens 24, Bengals 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Ravens by 7. O/U: 40.

The Ravens lose to bad teams and beat good ones. That formula will serve them well this week, as there's no overlooking the resurgent Bengals and rookie quarterback Andy Dalton.

Buffalo (5-4)

at Miami (2-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Dolphins 23, Bills 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Dolphins by 2. O/U: 43.

The Dolphins are starting to have fun, whereas the Bills are seemingly more clenched by the week. With the pressure Buffalo is feeling, this game favors the relaxed team.

Jacksonville (3-6)

at Cleveland (3-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jaguars 14, Browns 10

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Browns by 1. O/U: 34.

In the last four weeks, the Browns have scored six, 10, 12 and 12 points. That's not going to get it done, even against lousy opponents. Jacksonville's defense is ranked fourth.

Tampa Bay (4-5)

at Green Bay (9-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Packers 28, Buccaneers 18

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Packers by 14. O/U: 48.

Buccaneers didn't show a pulse in getting blown out by Houston on Sunday. There's no indication they will somehow rally and make a game of it against the hottest team in football.

Dallas (5-4)

at Washington (3-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Redskins 24, Cowboys 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Cowboys by 7. O/U: 41.

Most signs point to Dallas winning, but the Redskins are desperate and if they're ever going to be focused on an opponent, it's the Cowboys. Rex Grossman occasionally plays well.

Carolina (2-7)

at Detroit (6-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Lions 30, Panthers 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Lions by 7. O/U: 47.

The Panthers lost at home to Minnesota. That's not the kind of team you can count on to win in Detroit, even though Lions have lost three of four after getting off to a 5-0 start.

Arizona (3-6)

at San Francisco (8-1)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

49ers 27, Cardinals 13

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: 49ers by 9. O/U: 40.

The Cardinals are no pushover here, especially with Frank Gore at less than 100%. Still, the 49ers get the nod considering the way quarterback Alex Smith and their defense are playing.

Seattle (3-6)

at St. Louis (2-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Seahawks 20, Rams 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Rams by 1. O/U: 39.

The Seahawks are 1-3 on the road this season, so this is no gimme. But the Rams are so beat up, and they have next to no depth, and that will be the difference.

Tennessee (5-4)

at Atlanta (5-4)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Titans 30, Falcons 28

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Falcons by 6. O/U: 44.

With Houston's Matt Schaub hurt, the Titans could have a chance to make up ground in the division. Matt Hasselbeck should be able to take advantage of a vulnerable Falcons pass defense.

San Diego (4-5)

at Chicago (6-3)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Bears 28, Chargers 24

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Bears by 3. O/U: 45.

The Chargers are routinely getting beat in the trenches, and their receivers aren't creating separation. Chicago can get to Philip Rivers and/or force him into making mistakes.

Philadelphia (3-6)

at N.Y. Giants (6-3)

Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

Giants 24, Eagles 21

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Giants by 4. O/U: 47.

Having blown fourth-quarter leads five times, the Eagles have nothing better than warning-track power. And now Michael Vick's status is up in the air because of broken ribs?

Kansas City (4-5)

at New England (6-3)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Patriots 35, Chiefs 17

TV: ESPN.

Line: Patriots by 15. O/U: 46.

The Patriots tend to keep focused on the task at hand, especially at home when the weather turns cold. Without Matt Cassel, the Chiefs will be hard-pressed to make a game of it.

Off: Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh.

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